22/02/2025
When I see plane accidents on the news, why aren’t I more comforted by the fact that aviation’s safe?
We have to work at and build up the habit of getting our feelings and behaviours to respond to our knowledge of statistical facts. It doesn’t come naturally.
The human mind evolved well before we had means to investigate, verify, and widely share abstract data like these. Instead, the mind’s default, rough-and-ready way of judging probability relies on memory: Naturally, we feel that something’s more likely to happen if we can recall an example of it more easily and vividly. This is called the “Availability Heuristic”.
Before international news was everywhere almost immediately, when knowledge was mostly limited to first-hand experience of local occurrences, the Availability Heursitic didn’t lead us too far astray.
Now, however, it means that seeing some examples of plane accidents on the news can be enough to drastically warp our sense of how likely such accidents are.
It helps to know this and keep it in mind. It might be hard to “feel” the statistical facts, but we can get better at using them to align our behaviours with reality.
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Get in touch at admin@sydneyphobiaclinic.com.au or call (02)85408739