31/12/2025
Numbers, Reality, and Political Maturity vs. Personal Decisions: A Review
Protesting against injustice and being a responsible political leader are not the same thing. Protest may be driven by emotion, but politics demands the ability to understand reality, exercise patience, apply strategy, and—most importantly—respect collective democratic decisions within a party.
One concrete example makes this distinction unmistakably clear. After a single post under the banner of the National Citizen Party (NCP), nearly 4.7 million taka was donated by the public within 29 hours. In contrast, despite multiple consecutive posts as an independent initiative, it took several days and significant effort to gather even 5,000 active supporters. This clearly demonstrates that public support was not centered on an individual, but rather on the party and the platform.
When it comes to the alliance debate within the NCP, the numbers speak for themselves. 170 members voted in favor of forming an alliance, while 30 members opposed it. Democracy means respecting minority opinions—but it also means accepting the will of the majority. The core concern arises when efforts are made to enforce the opinion of 30 members while disregarding the collective decision of 170. Party democracy does not mean imposing one’s personal view; it means accepting collective decisions in the interest of the greater good.
Now let us turn to the practical realities of alliance politics versus contesting elections independently. Politics is not driven by emotion alone—it is also a game of numbers. An alliance with Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami may not lead directly to forming a government, but considering the fixed voter base of a 10-party alliance, there is a realistic possibility of winning 12–20 seats out of 30 contested constituencies. If such an alliance were to secure 100–120 seats in total, it could emerge as a strong opposition in parliament—acting as an effective stakeholder, exerting pressure on the ruling party, and advancing its political agenda through parliamentary mechanisms.
By contrast, contesting elections independently presents a much harsher reality. The NCP’s fixed voter base does not exceed 5%, which limits its realistic prospects to 5–6 seats at best. In such a scenario, the party would neither be able to function as a strong opposition nor play an effective role in parliament.
An alliance with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party-BNP presents even greater limitations. BNP is unlikely to concede more than six seats to the NCP, and the presence of rebel candidates in each of those constituencies is almost guaranteed. Under such conditions, it is difficult to deny that—aside from Hasnat Abdullah �� —the chances of victory for other candidates would be minimal.
This brings us to the ground-level reality. At present, the NCP’s organizational strength has not reached a stage where it can independently secure electoral victory. Ignoring this reality would amount to self-deception. The most rational path forward is to first secure a parliamentary presence through an alliance, use that position to demonstrate meaningful work for the people, strengthen grassroots organization, and only then consider contesting independently at an appropriate time.
There is also a practical advantage to an alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami: not a single Jamaat vote would be diverted to another ballot box, ensuring full vote transfer to alliance candidates. In contrast, an alliance with BNP carries an inherent risk of vote splitting—some votes would go to alliance candidates, while others would shift to rebel independents—further weakening electoral prospects.
In politics, making quick decisions and reversing them just as quickly is not a sign of political maturity. Democracy does not mean forcing one’s personal opinion on others. The NCP’s decision was taken based on the majority view. Leaving the party due to an inability to accept that decision cannot be considered an example of political foresight.
Political maturity is not the same as academic excellence. Politics is not a space for impulsive emotional entry—it demands acceptance of reality. This is not an ordinary time. When even major political parties hesitate to contest elections without alliances, expecting a new party to succeed independently is simply unrealistic.
Education is undoubtedly honorable, but without political understanding, that education contributes little to the state in terms of leadership. A skilled doctor can serve the country well in medicine, but political leadership requires a clear grasp of political realities.
There is no denying the competence of young, educated, and modern-minded candidates. Many of them aspire to build a modern state inspired by Western models. However, if this notion of modernity seeks to exclude even minimal Islamic values from politics—or treats engagement with Islamic political forces as inherently problematic—public caution is neither surprising nor unreasonable.
Glamour, popularity, and the façade of modernity can often obscure true intentions. But the right to vote is equal for all. Therefore, those who hold concerns regarding Islamic values have every reason—and responsibility—to remain vigilant.
Rapid decision-making followed by rapid reversals is a sign of inexperience. The proverb “old rice makes better meals” applies to politics as well. One must first learn patience and steadiness before assuming leadership.
Political history teaches us that over the past 54 years, no party in Bangladesh has come to power independently without alliances. Considering this reality, the NCP’s decision to form an alliance was both strategic and logical—arguably, it could have been taken even earlier. An alliance with Jamaat also minimizes the risk of vote transfer, a safeguard not available in a BNP alliance.
Contesting elections independently makes even retaining one’s security deposit difficult. Ensuring parliamentary representation through an alliance, strengthening grassroots organization, demonstrating tangible work for the people, and then moving independently in the future is the wiser political course.
Historically, both the Bangladesh Awami League and BNP have allied with Jamaat-e-Islami. Those who question such alliances today must ask—where were they then?
The reality is this: the NCP has taken a politically sound decision. On the other hand, while Dr Tasnim Jara and others are fully entitled to leave the party as a personal choice, it is difficult to characterize those departures as examples of political foresight.
In closing, one simple truth remains— Small grains of sand and countless drops of water together form an ocean. Not emotion, but clear thinking and long-term planning are what can restore a strong, balanced political culture in this country.
Politics is not a personality-centered game. Differences of opinion will exist, but democracy fundamentally requires accepting collective decisions for the greater good. Without party discipline and political patience, no organization can survive in the long run.
This is solely my personal review. Constructive advice and criticism are welcome.
Sharmin Akter
London, Ontario, Canada
December 29, 2025
Local time: 9:20 PM
