13/01/2026
Haddii aan si dhexdhexaad ah u kala saarno waxa saxda ah, waxa liita, iyo waxa mala-awaal ah ee qormadan sidan ayay noqonaysaa.
1. Waxyaabaha saxda ah ee qormadu taabatay ✅
A) Doorka is-ku-duubnida bulshada (Social cohesion)
Waa xaqiiqo cilmiyeed in bulshooyinka homogeneous (isku qolo badan) ay mararka qaar yeeshaan:
Xallin khilaaf oo degdeg ah
Kalsooni bulsho (social trust)
Kharash amni oo hooseeya
Tani waxaa taageera cilmi-baarayaal sida Alesina, Putnam, Fearon, iwm.
➡️ Marka, fikradda ah in is-ku-duubnidu yareyso khataraha qaarkood waa sax.
B) Muqdisho oo ah magaalo aad u kala duwan
Waa run in Muqdisho tahay:
Magaalo heterogeneous ah
Qabiilo badan, dano is-khilaafsan
Khilaafyo u baahan wada-xaajood iyo waqti
Fikradda Free Rider Problem sidoo kale waa mid ku jirta cilmiga siyaasadda iyo dhaqaalaha.
➡️ Sidaas darteed, sharaxaadda qaab-dhismeedka Muqdisho waa mid macquul ah.
2. Meelaha qormadu ka liidato ⚠️
A) “Amniga” si khaldan ayaa loo qeexay
Qormadu amniga waxay u xaddiday:
Tuugnimo
Khilaaf beeleed
Is-xalin bulsho
❌ Laakiin amniga dhabta ah waxaa ka mid ah:
Argagixiso (Al-Shabaab)
Qaraxyo
Dilal qorshaysan
Weerarro hubeysan
Awoodda dowladda iyo sirdoonka
➡️ Qodobadan si buuxda looma gelin xisaabta, gaar ahaan Muqdisho.
B) Lambarada (0.255 iyo 0.338) waa la iska dhigay
Lama helayo xog rasmi ah oo leh:
“Heerka khatarta Hargeysa = 0.255”
“Heerka khatarta Muqdisho = 0.338”
Alesina iyo Fearon ma bixiyaan lambar amni magaalo-magaalo ah, ee waxay cabbiraan ethnic fractionalization, ma aha:
Qaraxyo
Dilal
Argagixiso
➡️ Sidaas darteed, nambaradu waa estimation maskaxeed (assumptions), ma aha cabbir dhab ah.
C) 8 dhibcood farqi = mala-awaal
Marka la eego xogta dhabta ah:
Muqdisho:
Qaraxyo joogto ah
Weerarro hoteello, garoon, wasaarado
Dilal qorshaysan
Hargeysa:
Qaraxyo aad u yar (mararka qaarkood sanooyin kala fog)
Argagixiso muuqata ma joogto
➡️ Farqiga dhabta ah ee amniga ma aha 8 dhibcood, waa mid aad uga weyn.
3. Meesha qormadu gebi ahaanba ka khaldan tahay ❌
A) “Propa
Cilmiga Xisaabta waxaa uu inoo sheegayaa isbarbardhiga xagga Amniga ee Mogadisho iyo Hargeysa in sanado badan uu ku dhisnaa propogando. Majirto farqi wayn oo u dhexeeya xagga Amniga marka si cadaalad la isku barbardhigo cid weliba xaqeedii la siiyo (Haddaad reero xisaab ahayn waad wareeri doontaa, Mowduucaan midkaaga ma aha). Mogadisho iyo Hargeiso farqiga amni ee u dhexeeya waa %30 keliya. Hargeysa 8 dhibcood keliya ayey ka h**eysaa Mogadisho. Sirta ka dambeysa ayaad ku arki doontaa.
1-Hargeysa (Caasimadda Somaliland)
A)Tirada dadka: ~1.2 Milyan
B) Awoodda waa: Monoblock (Hal-qolo)
C) Awooda Qabiilka: Beesha Isaaq: %85 (Awoodda ugu sarraysa) Kuwa kale (Gadabuursi, Harti, iwm): %15
D) Xaaladda Bulshada: "Dynamic Homogeneity" Magaaladu waxay u shaqaysaa sidii hal qoys oo kale. Is-qabqabsiga gudaha aad buu u yar yahay.
2.Muqdisho (Caasimadda Soomaaliya
A) Tirada Dadka: ~ 3 Milyan
B) Awoodda: Poliblock (Qolooyin badan)
C) Awooda Qabiilka: Dheellitiran, Isbahaysiga Hawiye (Abgaal, Habar Gidir, Murusade): ~%45-50
Isbahaysiga Daarood: ~%20 Raxanweyn (Digil/Mirifle): ~%20 Dir iyo Banaadiri (Others): ~%10-15
D) Xaaladda Bulshada: Balanced Heterogeneity. Magaaladu waa sida shirkad isbahaysi oo ay maamulaan afar saami-lay oo waaweyn.
Si loo ogaado heerka amniga, marka h**e waxaan xisaabinaynaa Heerka Khatarta (H), kadibna Dhibcaha Amniga (G).
Hargeysa Heerka khatarta: 0,255
Sababta waa saamaynta %85 ee beesha Isaaq, Waxaa ay hoos u dhigaysa noocyada khatarta.
Heerka khatarta mogadisho: 0,338
Sababtu waa in awooduhu 4 u kala qaybsan yihiin, haddana jiritaanka 4-da awoodood ee kale (Hawiye, Daarood, Raxanweyn, Dir) ayaa isku dheellitirkani adkeeynaya sidaasina khatarta waa waxa kor u qaadaya.
Qaacidada amniga: G = (1- H) x 100
Amniga Hargeysa: (1 - 0,255) x 100 = 74,5
Amniga Muqdisho: (1 - 0,338) x 100 = 66,2
Heerka Amniga:
74,5/100
66,2 /100
Hargeysa ayaa +8,3 dhibcood horraysa.
Hargeysa: Maadaama %85 bulshadu ay ku midaysan yihiin dalladda "Isaaq", marka dhibaato amni dhacdo (tusaale: tuugnimo), xalku wuxuu noqdaa "arrin qoys/guri dhexdiis" oo si degdeg ah loo xaliyo. Kharashka ku baxayo xalinta dhibaatooyinka waa yar yihiin.
Muqdisho: Marka dhibaato amni dhacdo (tusaale: Qof ka soo jeeda aagga Hawiye marka uu dambi ka gala aagga Daarood), tani waxay isu beddeli kartaa "xiisad diblomaasiyadeed". Qancinta dhinacyada iyo bixinta magta waxay qaadataa waqti. Is-jiidjiidkan ayaa hoos u dhigaya amniga (wuxuuna ka dhigayaa 66,2).
Afarta awoodood ee Muqdisho, in kasta oo ay dhammaantood rabaan amni, waxaa ka dhex dhaca dhibaatada loo yaqaan "Free Rider Problem" (Ku-tiirsanaanta dadka kale). "Maxaan anigu amniga u sugayaa, qolada kale ha sugtee" fikirka ah, wuxuu abuuraa daloolo amni oo laga fa'iidaysto.
Hargeysa, maadaama uu jiro hal "Oday" (Isaaq), haddii uusan amniga sugin, khasaaruhu isaga ayuu ku dhacayaa. Sidaas darteed, lahaanshaha amnigu waa mid buuxa.
Dadka Muqdisho (3 Milyan) waa 2.5x laabka dadka Hargeysa. Muqdisho waxay leedahay H (khatar) kala duwaansho oo hargeysa aysan lahayn. Tani waxay ka dhigan tahay in tirada "dhacdooyinka dambiyada" farqi in uu dhexeeynaayo.
Sababtu Amniga hargeysa ma aha awoodda booliiska oo kaliya, laakiin waa %85 isku-duubnida bulshada DAD ISLA DHASHAY (homogeneity).
Haddii Hargeyso la dajiyo qabaailo kala duwan oo %10 bulshada u dhigma, amniga hargeysa waxaa uu hoos uga dhacayaa kan Mogadisho, sirtu waa in hargeysa ay ku noolyihiin HOMOGEN dad wada ah mogadisho in ay ku nool yihiin dad HETEROGEN kala ah.
Numbarada heerka khatarta Mogadisho = 0.338 waxaa laga soo qaatay celceliska QABIILADA iyo heerka kala duwnaansho,
Laakiin Numberka heerka khatarta hargeysa waxaa laga soo qaatay standarka caalamiga maadama farqiga uu yaryahay. Waxaa la tixraacay dhibcaha aasaasiga ah ee loo isticmaalo bulshooyinka isku-dhafan (homogeneous) sida Alesina ama Fearon indices. Maadaama Hargeysa ay ka jirto hal awood oo xooggan (Isaaq), heerka "kala-duwanaanshaha dabiiciga ah" Waa 0,255.
Furaha qoraalka: Heerka kala duwnaanshaha = Asalka halista.
