08/25/2022                                                                            
                                    
                                                                            
                                            Does Having An Autistic Child Truly Increase Your Likelihood of Divorce?
Autism Speaks routinely cites statistics, which appear to “prove” that autistic children break up marriages.  But if you take a closer look, this argument is NOT air tight!  Far from it.  There is a possible explanation involving confounding variables.  I will explain using murders and ice cream.
I studied Sociology at Hanover College, one of the best schools in Indiana.  My professor Dr. Crone wanted all of his students to be aware of the tricks used in writing misleading studies and how to understand experimental results properly.  His example was a graph, which he showed us, that APPEARED to demonstrate a correlation between ice cream sales and murders.
Yes, the premise was far fetched, but the numbers were right there.  The class sat scratching their heads until Dr. Crone explained about confounding variables.  A confounding variable is a third variable, which influences and connects the two variables, which are the focus of the study.  This variable is the true cause or correlation with the other two variables, which are unrelated otherwise.  An honest, smart scientist looks to eliminate confounding variables before conducting an experiment.
So what was the confounding variable truly linked to the increase of both ice cream sales and murders?  The answer is Summer.  During summer, more ice cream is purchased.  In addition, tempers tend to flare when temperatures go up, which causes an increase in murders.  So ice cream and murders have no causal relationship at all.  They are both simply linked to summer.
This is my educated guess as to what is happening in these Autism Speaks statistics.  They appear to show a correlation between a child having autism and their parents’ divorce.  But I doubt that this is the full story.  And I have a thought about what the confounding variable might be, besides marital stress.
What ELSE is linked to both autistic children and an increased rate of divorce?  Autistic parents.  If a child is autistic, it is statistically more likely that one or both parents is neurodiverse.  And, especially in cases where only one parent is neurodiverse, communication problems are likely.  There is a higher probability of divorce for a couple when only one partner is neurodiverse if the couple doesn’t receive proper support.
So, no, I don’t buy for a second that if Mr. and Mrs. Jones had a beautiful marriage full of like-minded thinking and rich communication, that little Timmy being diagnosed with autism would terminate their marriage.  But chances are that if Mr. and Mrs. Jones were struggling to begin with because he was autistic and she was Neurotypical, two things would both be more likely to happen:
1. Timmy would be more likely to be autistic.
2. These two parents, who were already struggling even BEFORE Timmy’s autism came into their lives, would need extra support to avoid divorce.
Thus, autistic children do not cause their parents’ divorce, even if there is correlation.
I will add one more thing as a former autistic child myself.  I used to believe that I was the cause of my parent’s fighting until I went off to college, and their marriage got even worse.  Parents, who fight over a child, typically will not know how to magically communicate better once that child leaves the nest.  Hopefully, couples in this situation will figure this out and seek proper supports for their relationship.