From the present figure of 6 billion, the world's population is likely to reach 7.2 billion in 2015, having grown by 75 million people annually. Ninety percent of the increase will occur in today's developing countries. Economic growth. Economic growth is expected to be sustained in the developing world at least until 2005, but with considerable differences between countries. Changes in the global balance of wealth among nations are likely to be slow. The risk of economic recessions - with adverse effects on employment, agriculture and food security - will continue. Hunger. Hunger and undernourishment are expected to persist, although at slightly reduced levels. Without major efforts to improve food supply and achieve a more equitable distribution, in 2015 undernourishment may still affect 30 percent of some countries' populations. Poverty and urbanization. The urban poor are likely to constitute a greater proportion of the world's undernourished, as urban populations are increasing by 60 million per year. By 2010, more people will live in urban areas than rural areas and, by 2015, 26 cities in today's developing countries will have populations of 10 million or more. National and international action must avert or mitigate some of these trends, particularly with regard to their impact on food security. Political, economic and social systems will be expected to ensure equitable access to food. Agriculture - including fisheries and forestry - will have to meet the needs of growing and increasingly urbanized populations, while at the same time protecting the natural resource base for future generations. Within this general scenario, several major trends and forces are likely to have a bearing on FAO's work, including:
Increased emphasis on the state's principal role as that of providing a policy and regulatory framework conducive to sustainable development
Continuing globalization and liberalization of trade, including food and agricultural trade
Growth in the number of countries in the middle-income group, and increased reliance on regional and subregional groupings
Persistence of poverty and mounting inequality - a widening of the gap between the affluent and the poor
Continued risk of disaster-related and complex emergencies
Changing demands on agriculture, fisheries and forestry in increasingly urbanized societies
Changing dietary patterns and increasing public awareness of food (safety and quality) and environmental issues
Increasing pressure on natural resources and competition for their use
Steady progress in research and technological development, and continued inequality in access to its benefits
Increasing impact of information and communications technology on institutions and societies
Changes in the nature and composition of funding for agricultural development
Changing role and public perceptions of the UN system
Members' global goals and FAO's purpose
To face the challenges implicit in these trends, the Strategic Framework defines three global goals of Members, which are consistent with FAO's Constitution and take into account a number of texts agreed at international conferences, in particular the World Food Summit and UNCED:
Goal 1
Access of all people at all times to sufficient nutritionally adequate and safe food, ensuring that the number of undernourished people is reduced by half by no later than 2015. Goal 2
The continued contribution of sustainable agriculture and rural development, including fisheries and forestry, to economic and social progress and the well-being of all. Goal 3
The conservation, improvement and sustainable utilization of natural resources, including land, water, forest, fisheries and genetic resources for food and agriculture. In pursuing these goals, FAO must rely on its strong set of institutional values and maintain a clear sense of its mission as well as a vision of success. Indeed, the Organization's mission and vision are the inspiration for the corporate strategies that make up the Strategic Framework. FAO's mission and vision statements
MISSION
Helping to build a food-secure world for
present and future generations
Over the next 15 years, FAO will assist Members in:
reducing food insecurity and rural poverty;
ensuring an enabling policy and regulatory framework for food and agriculture, fisheries and forestry;
securing sustainable increases in the supply and availability of food;
conserving and enhancing the natural resource base; and
generating knowledge of food and agriculture, fisheries and forestry. VISION
Remaining fully responsive to the ideals and requirements of Members, and being recognized for leadership and partnership in helping to build a food-secure world
Over the next 15 years, FAO will be:
a centre of excellence and an authoritative purveyor of knowledge and advice in the sphere of its mandate;
a pre-eminent repository and provider of multidisciplinary capacities and services in the areas of its competence;
an active partner of organizations - within and outside the UN system - that share its goals and values;
a well-managed, efficient and cost-effective institution;
a mobilizer of international will and resources to assist its Members, as well as a responsible manager of the resources entrusted to it; and
an effective communicator and advocate for its own goals and those of its Members.
