Complexity Science Hub

03/11/2025

👏👏👏 Kudos to our 𝐒𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐲 & 𝐂𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐩𝐬𝐞 research group! Led by Peter Turchin, the team — including Daniel Kondor, Jenny Reddish, and Jakob Zsambok — has been awarded an grant to investigate societal resilience across history and today.

𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:

Societies around the world are constantly exposed to severe shocks, such as climate change, pandemics, (war-induced) displacement of populations, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and recessions. Whether the outcome is successful social adaptation 💪, political strife ⚠️, or even social breakdown 🥀 depends on the degree of resilience of societies — their capacity for adaptive responses and effective collective action.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐝𝐨:

The CSH team aims to assess the resilience of historic and modern societies and identify main factors that contribute to its breakdown, leading to instability and crisis. Their insights aim to help modern societies to increase their resilience, mitigate instability and avoid crises.

🔗 https://www.fwf.ac.at/en/research-radar/10.55776/PAT9495024

03/11/2025

Throughout human history, times of multiple crises have often led to the 💥 collapse of entire societies. Yet, in some cases, despite enormous pressure, societies managed to turn the tide 💪 – but how? And what can we learn from them for today’s challenges?

At a time when the world faces large and interconnected challenges, CSH researcher Peter Turchin notes: “Studying historical cases of societies averting collapse is not just intellectually fascinating; it also offers insights for contemporary policy.”

In a new study, researchers at the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) analyzed four historical cases – the 🏛️ early Roman Republic, the 🇬🇧 Chartist movement in England, the 🇷🇺 reform period in Russia, and the 🗽 Progressive Era in the United States – and identified three key factors that helped these societies avoid collapse:

1️⃣ 𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐚𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬
2️⃣ 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐡𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐬
3️⃣ 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐬

“The irony here is that at the very point where reform is most needed, those with the greatest power to enact it are often least inclined to do so,” says co-author Jenny Reddish. 😕

Another key lesson: “Our work demonstrates that while the pressures leading to societal crises are often predictable, the outcomes are not predetermined,” Daniel Hoyer emphasizes.

Read the full story:

Throughout history, crisis have often led to collapse—but not always. Researchers highlight four such cases and identify three key factors that can turn the tide.

03/11/2025

📖 INVITATION: Join us for our next 𝐀𝐫𝐭 & 𝐒𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 event – a lecture by Peter Rosei on his new book: I Am Not a Rock, I Am a River (𝐈𝐜𝐡 𝐛𝐢𝐧 𝐤𝐞𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐞𝐥𝐬𝐞𝐧, 𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐛𝐢𝐧 𝐞𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐬) at the Complexity Science Hub.

📅 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧: Thursday, 13 Nov 2025
⏰ 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭: 6 pm
📍 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞: Complexity Science Hub, Metternichgasse 8, 1030 Vienna

Peter Rosei’s essays explore the urgency of questions and the impossibility of simple answers. They reflect on art as a form of research, the dialogue between self and society, and the constant asking: But is that true? What should we do? How do we want to live?

🔗 Register here: https://csh.ac.at/art/peter-rosei/

About Peter Rosei: Born in Vienna in 1946, Rosei has published novels, essays, and poems translated worldwide. His awards include the Franz Kafka Prize and the Austrian Cross of Honour for Science and Art.

The Art & Science program is made possible through the support of the City of Vienna.
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📣 Speaking of art.....here’s an opportunity that visual artists won’t want to miss: The Central European University, a member of CSH, is inviting artists to design and create a landmark work to celebrate the university’s 35th anniversary.
🔗 Find out more: https://www.ceu.edu/news/2025-10/ceu-35th-anniversary-public-art-commission-call-artist-proposals
🗓️ The call is open until November 18.

30/10/2025

It's a wonderful perspective to see one of our researchers share where they work and what that’s like. In this Substack blog post, Peter Turchin, who leads the Social Complexity and Collapse group at the Complexity Science Hub and is the author of internationally recognized books like , gives a personal look at our workspace in Palais Springer-Rothschild — and even a bit of Vienna:

Where I work

28/10/2025

𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐢𝐝 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐨 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐝? Researchers at the Complexity Science Hub may have uncovered a crucial piece of the puzzle.

👥 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬, 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧?
In a new study in , Stefan Thurner, Markus Hofer, and Jan Korbel show that between 2008 and 2010 — a period when smartphones and Facebook became mainstream — societal polarization surged. At the same time, the number of close social contacts doubled, with survey data showing an average increase from two to over four close friends.

Using a mathematical model, the researchers identified a link between these developments: more close friends, and thus more connections in a society’s social network, can fragment the network, contributing to increased polarization.

💬 “This finding impressed us greatly because it could provide a fundamental explanation for the peculiar form of polarization we're currently observing simultaneously across many parts of the world — one that definitely threatens democracy,” says Thurner.

📊 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐛𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲:
The team analyzed more than 27,000 surveys on polarization in the United States from the Pew Research Center and over 57,000 surveys on social contacts across Europe and the United States.

The study will be published in PNAS this week and will be available here: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2517530122
Want to learn more already? https://csh.ac.at/news/researchers-find-possible-cause-for-increasing-polarization/

The research was made possible by the - Emerging fields research project funded by the Austrian Science Fund FWF and the funded by the Bundesministerium für Innovation, Mobilität und Infrastruktur ( ).

The authors are also affiliated with the Medical University of Vienna.

Between 2008 and 2010, people’s average number of close friends rose from two to over four. At the same time polarization increased.

27/10/2025

This summer, CSH researchers Bernhard Haslhofer and Stefan Kitzler sat down with Edith Humenberger-Lackner to talk about the limits of in fighting financial crime – and what authorities really need to know about crypto platforms.

The full interview, published in FONDS Professionell, is now online! 👉 https://www.fondsprofessionell.at/eMag/2025_3_FPA/202/index.html

23/10/2025

News alert! 🗞️
An story in DER STANDARD by Delia Weindorf highlights research by Peter Steiglechner from the Complexity Science Hub — conducted together with Ago Merico and Paul Smaldino from the Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT) GmbH and the University of California, Merced.

The article explores what happens when politics divide families and friendships — a topic their study examines through the lens of social dynamics.

Read the story (in German):

Ob Corona, Klimakrise oder Trump – viele Themen spalten. Aber warum irritiert es uns so sehr, wenn gerade die Menschen, die man liebt, anderer Meinung sind?

20/10/2025

🌐 How can we address organized crime and reduce its global impact?

Last week, the Complexity Science Hub hosted a and on this pressing challenge, organized by Rafael Prieto-Curiel.

Eleven presentations explored the complexity of violence, covering topics such as organized crime groups (e.g., cartels) and their recruitment practices 👥, social media dynamics 📱, crypto crimes 💻, and law enforcement strategies 👮‍♂️.

We thank our keynote speakers – Aly Jetha (Big Bad Boo), Bernhard Haslhofer (CSH), and Rodrigo Peña González (El Colegio de México - Colmex) – for their insightful contributions, as well as panelists José Antonio Zabalgoitia Trejo (President of the United Nations Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice), Dmitry Orlov (UNODC - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime), and Sergio Aguayo (El Colegio de México - Colmex) for a thought-provoking discussion on why some policies fail, what lessons can be applied globally, and how complexity science can connect these diverse elements.

🗞️ For all who missed it and are interested in learning more, Sergio Aguayo reflected on the event in his weekly column in Reforma: https://shorturl.at/nNDhH (Spanish) https://shorturl.at/23wKY (English).

It was also great to see such active engagement from participants joining in person and online, including representatives from the UNODC and various embassies, who face these challenges on a daily basis 🔄.

As this event aimed to highlight how interdisciplinary collaboration between science, policy, and practice is essential to understand and effectively address organized crime, Rafael Prieto-Curiel emphasizes: “I am more convinced than ever that complex systems offer a key framework for connecting all aspects of organized crime, providing modeling insights to guide research and policy.”

20/10/2025

Invitation to the next 𝐀𝐫𝐭 & 𝐒𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 edition at the Complexity Science Hub:

This time, it’s all about ✍ writing: join us for a lecture by Peter Rosei on his new book: I Am Not a Rock, I Am a River (𝐈𝐜𝐡 𝐛𝐢𝐧 𝐤𝐞𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐞𝐥𝐬𝐞𝐧, 𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐛𝐢𝐧 𝐞𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐬).

📅 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧: Thursday, 13 Nov 2025
⏰ 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭: 6 pm
📍 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞: Complexity Science Hub, Metternichgasse 8, 1030 Vienna

Peter Rosei’s essays explore the urgency of questions and the impossibility of simple answers. They reflect on art as a form of research, the dialogue between self and society, and the constant asking: But is that true? What should we do? How do we want to live?

🔗 Register here: https://csh.ac.at/art/peter-rosei/

About Peter Rosei: Born in Vienna in 1946, Rosei has published novels, essays, and poems translated worldwide. His awards include the Franz Kafka Prize and the Austrian Cross of Honour for Science and Art.

The Art & Science program is made possible through the support of the Stadt Wien.

Art & Science

20/10/2025

What connects the mathematics of magnetism to voting patterns in the US Senate? CSH scientist Eddie Lee found an unexpected answer while studying five decades of congressional votes.

In a fascinating Q&A with science journalist Elise Cutts, Lee explains how he applied statistical physics to understand Senate and discovered something unexpected. His model for capturing how senators' hidden preferences shape their votes turned out to be mathematically identical to a restricted Boltzmann machine, the pioneering neural network architecture that won the 2024 Nobel Prize and helped launch modern .

The analysis reveals that polarization is accelerating, but not in the simple "Republicans vs Democrats" way we often assume. Want to learn more? Check out the interview: https://bit.ly/4os0dum

A Q&A with Eddie Lee on physics and polarization in the Senate

17/10/2025

🤝 Today, the Complexity Science Hub had the honor of welcoming Alexander Pröll, Austria’s Secretary of State for Digitalization, Constitution, Public Service, Coordination, and Combating Antisemitism.

He met with CSH President Stefan Thurner and Secretary General Philipp Marxgut to discuss how can strengthen public administration across health, economy, and supply chain security.

A key focus was on harnessing and connecting , particularly in the health sector, where collaboration could advance the creation of a National Data Platform.

The conversation also touched on societal and the role of data-driven insights in addressing challenges.

The exchange highlighted the potential for data, research and government to work hand-in-hand on shaping a digitally sovereign and resilient future.

13/10/2025

🚀 life is an exciting yet pivotal stage of every researcher’s journey — full of opportunities, but also big questions about what comes next.
That’s why we’re thrilled to invite you to the 𝐕𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐚 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐝𝐨𝐜 𝐂𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐚𝐲!

📅 When: November 12�📍 Where: Van Swieten Saal, Van-Swieten-Gasse 1a, 1090 Vienna�🎯 Who: Open to all Postdocs from Austrian research institutions
🔗 Register here: https://cc.lbg.ac.at/careerday

✨ Expect inspiring inputs on career paths inside and outside academia — from insights shared by LExA nominees to first-hand perspectives from a leading management consulting company.

Why join? Because understanding your options, learning from role models, and building meaningful connections can make all the difference for the next step in your career. 🌍💡

We at the Complexity Science Hub are delighted to co-organize this great initiative. Together with our partners Universität Wien, Institute of Science and Technology Austria - ISTA, LBG Career Center, Medizinische Universität Wien, Vienna BioCenter & TU Wien, we look forward to an inspiring day of exchange — sparking connections, sharing ideas, and empowering researchers’ careers in Austria.