07/01/2026
We want to speak plainly about what is forecast for Friday 9 January, because this is shaping up to be one of the most dangerous fire weather days since Black Summer (2019/20).
As of Wednesday, 7 January, three Victorian forecast districts are already predicted to reach Catastrophic fire danger.
The rest of the state – including Gippsland– is forecast to be Extreme, and at the higher end of Extreme, with the potential to escalate further as conditions are refined.
To put this into real terms, Orbost is:
• Forecast 40C
• Strong north-north westerly winds of 25-40km/h
That combination is one of the most dangerous fire weather setups we see in Victoria.
A late south-westerly wind change has the potential to rapidly turn the flank or edge of a large fire into a fast-moving, wide fire front, placing new areas at risk with little warning.
These are the kinds of conditions that have driven major fire events, including during the 2019/20 and 2009 fire seasons.
🔥 Why this matters
On days like this:
• Fires can start easily and spread extremely fast
• Fires may be impossible to contain or control
• Spot fires can occur sometimes kilometres ahead of the main fire
• Fire behaviour can change suddenly and violently
• Fires can overwhelm firefighting resources very quickly
🚗 Leave early means early
When authorities say leave early, they mean before a fire starts, not when smoke is visible or sirens are sounding.
In Extreme or Catastrophic conditions, waiting to see what happens can remove your safest option.
📻📱 Have more than one way to get warnings
Do not rely on a single source.
• ABC Radio 774 AM
• VicEmergency app and website
• Local emergency and community pages
• A battery-powered radio in case power or mobile networks fail
If one system fails, you need another.
This is not about panic.
It is about recognising a dangerous forecast, learning from past fire seasons, and making decisions early.
Please take the time now to prepare, talk with family and neighbours, and have a clear plan for Friday.
We're all hoping the day turns into a fizzer, but we still ask, heed the warnings and keep a level head.
Stay safe. We love our community.