17/12/2025
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🌡️🔥 Did You Know ... It Doesn't Have To Be 40°C For A Significant Fire To Start? 🌡️🔥
We've spent a lot of time lately on this page talking about Extreme and Catastrophic fire weather—and for good reason. While these days undoubtedly present the highest risk to life and property, they aren't the only days fires occur, and they aren't the only days you could be impacted by a fire.
It's the days you least expect that can catch you out.
There is a common misconception that if the temperature drops and the rating sits at Moderate or High, the risk has vanished or that "CFA will put it out". While it is true that we manage to control most fires in these milder conditions, this isn't always the case, and this complacency can be dangerous.
Significant fires can—and do—occur on "mild" days.
📉 The Flowerdale Example:
To understand this risk locally, we only have to look back at the Flowerdale fire from a couple of years ago. The conditions on the day it started did not scream "bushfire danger" to the average person:
🌤️ Temperature: It was a pleasant 21-22°C.
🌬️ Wind: A medium-to-strong gusting wind was coming from the South (a direction usually associated with cooler, safer winds).
Despite these "mild" metrics, the fire took hold rapidly, growing to over 990 hectares in size. Conditions became so serious that Watch and Act – Stay Near Shelter warnings were issued to the community.
🔥 Why did it happen?
Fire behaviour is driven by more than just air temperature. The landscape was critically dry. When grass and forest fuels are fully cured (dried out), they don't need a heatwave to burn—they just need a spark and some wind.
That "mild" Flowerdale fire:
🗓️ Burnt for multiple days.
🚒 Required a massive multi-agency response including multiple aircraft and night fire bombing operations.
🚜 Devastated agricultural land and farming infrastructure (fencing and sheds).
🏠 Impacted homes and the local community.
🌎 Global Proof: Los Angeles Winter Fires:
We saw tragic proof of this overseas recently. The catastrophic Los Angeles fires in January 2025 showed that the concept of a traditional "fire season" isn't always reliable.
Historically considered the "wet season" (winter), the Palisades and Eaton fires defied expectations. Fuelled by severe winds in the dead of winter, the impact was unprecedented:
🏚️ Over 18,000 structures destroyed.
💸 Total economic losses over $150 billion.
It serves as a stark reminder that we all must be ready for high-consequence incidents, no matter how mild the weather seems.
✅ The Takeaway:
Don't let the thermometer or mild weather fool you. If the landscape is dry, there is a risk. If it's windy, that adds considerably to the risk too.
A Moderate or High rating means you should still be ready for a fire to start.
Check your surroundings, keep up with what's happening around you with the VicEmergency app, and remember: Fire doesn't check the weather forecast before it spreads.