16/12/2025
ASH data shows the proportion of current smokers who have never tried va**ng has pretty much flatlined at 26% in 2024.
We ran a quick back-of-the-envelope forecast using Action on Smoking and Health (UK) historical trend to work out best, worst and central case scenarios.
Taking into account key factors:
✅ Misinformation
✅ Va**ng Products Duty
✅ Disposable ban impact
Results:
👉Best-case scenario: every smoker has at least tried va**ng by approx 2032
👉Central scenario: 2037
👉Worst-case: 15% have never tried in 2040
The next few years — with Va**ng Product Duty and post-disposable realities — will decide which path we take.
Find us on Linkedin for full results. Search Medic Pro Limited.
Which scenario do you think is most likely?
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