http://www.developmentanalytics.org/

Development Analytics, Oxford (2025)

27/06/2025

🌍This week, we would like to highlight a new World Bank Policy Research Working Paper: Global Socio-economic Resilience to Natural Disasters. Published in May 2025, this global study estimates the well-being losses and recovery times resulting from natural disasters in 132 countries—shifting the focus from asset losses alone to a more people-centred understanding of disaster impacts. The findings highlight that each dollar lost in physical assets translates, on average, into well-being losses equivalent to a $2 drop in national consumption, with the poorest bearing the heaviest burden. The poorest income quintile within each country incurs only 9% of national asset losses but accounts for 33% of well-being losses.

📊At the heart of this work is a global microsimulation model that estimates disaster impacts on representative households across income groups. The model captures how losses in income and assets affect consumption and uses an economic utility framework to translate these shocks into well-being impacts.

📝 This study evaluates ten policy options and concludes that socio-economic and financial strategies—such as insurance schemes and social protection—can serve as effective complements to asset-based approaches like improved construction standards. It also finds that interventions aimed at low-income groups tend to deliver greater returns by reducing well-being losses more efficiently per dollar spent.

📉 On a similar note, the Development Analytics team has modelled and estimated the impact of shocks ranging from disasters such as earthquakes and floods to the COVID-19 pandemic for countries including Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tajikistan, Georgia, and St Lucia. Following the estimation of the shock’s impact, we further simulate the poverty-mitigating potential of different cash transfer schemes responding to the shocks. By doing this, we support policymakers with an evidence base for fine-tuning social protection interventions, ensuring that they are both responsive and adaptive to the evolving needs of the affected communities. We also utilise our interactive web application, the Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS) to showcase these results in an interactive and flexible way.

🔗To read the World Bank working paper: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/ed72d459-6715-435a-ad06-7a3ddc5ff23c

🔗To learn more about our work on Design of Shock-Responsive Social Protection Programmes:
https://www.developmentanalytics.org/design-of-shock-responsive-social-protection-programmes

🔗To learn more about the Interactive Social Policy Simulator: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/interactive-social-policy-simulator

02/06/2025

🌐 Development Analytics is excited to announce a new opportunity for aspiring junior professionals in the field of social policy and quantitative data analysis! 🚀

🔍 Position Vacant: Junior Quantitative Analyst

📅 Application deadline: June 20, 2025

We are currently seeking a highly motivated Junior Quantitative Analyst to join our team.

The Junior Quantitative Analyst will be responsible for qualitative and quantitative data management, statistical analysis, data coding, and research support to studies and evaluations conducted by Development Analytics across different thematic areas of poverty, education, labour, social protection, forced migration, and health. She/he will be a core part of the research team. This position is remote and may require travel and staying in the regions where projects are active. Students already pursuing a master’s degree are highly encouraged to apply and be evaluated as an intern.

🔗 For detailed information about the position, including qualifications and application instructions, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/junior-quantitative-analyst2025

🔗 To submit your application, please fill out the following form: https://form.jotform.com/251483716636968

If you know someone who would be a great fit for this role, tag them in the comments or share this post to spread the word! 🌐

Development Analytics is committed to creating a diverse and inclusive work environment. We encourage individuals of all backgrounds to apply.

30/05/2025

📑We would like to highlight the publication released in February 2025 by UN Women and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), titled “Financing Care Infrastructure: An Opportunity for Public Development Banks to Pave the Way for Tomorrow’s Equality.”

💡In a world grappling with deepening care crises and widening gender inequalities, this publication presents a compelling case for why and how Public Development Banks (PDBs) can play a pivotal role in financing care infrastructure, services and physical infrastructure that directly and indirectly support care work.

Holding an estimated cumulative sum of assets of more than US$23 trillion and controlling over 10 per cent of global public and private investments, PDBs are uniquely positioned to provide long-term, large-scale financing to develop robust care infrastructure and services and to support governments in implementing policy reforms that recognize and value care work.

📈Drawing on the experiences of 8 development banks across diverse regions, the report outlines five key opportunities for PDBs to promote gender equality in relation to care infrastructure:

1. Invest in accessible and high-quality care services

2. Embed care and gender analysis in infrastructure projects

3. Promote decent jobs in the care sector

4. Support government-led care system transformation

5. Fund research to inform evidence-based policymaking

🌱With care work underpinning the well-being of societies—and overwhelmingly carried out by women—investments in care are not only essential for advancing SDG 5 (Gender Equality), but also for enabling inclusive economic growth and resilient societies. The future of equality starts with recognising and financing the care economy. As this report highlights, Public Development Banks have a unique opportunity—and responsibility—to transform care systems into engines of equity and development.

🔗 Read the full report: https://www.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2025/02/financing-care-infrastructure

27/05/2025

📘 New Research on Higher Education and Gender Equality in Türkiye

We would like to highlight a recent study co-authored by the economist and DA Research Associate Dr Merve Demirel Derebaşoğlu. Published in 2024 in the Journal of Human Capital, the study examines the effects of Türkiye’s large-scale higher education expansion between 2005 and 2009 on gender disparities in tertiary education. The reform increased university slots by over 60%, with the establishment of 40 new public universities, offering a unique opportunity to assess how rapid capacity growth affects educational attainment across genders.

📄 The study finds that while overall access to higher education improved for both men and women, the gender gap in attainment did not narrow beyond the existing time trend. Notably, the expansion in engineering programs—fields typically preferred by men—disproportionately benefited male students, while the more balanced growth in social sciences had a neutral effect on the gender gap. These findings highlight the importance of considering field-level preferences and structural barriers when designing equitable education policies.

📋 Importantly, the paper shows that simply increasing the number of university seats may not be sufficient to address deep-rooted inequalities. Targeted interventions—such as support for women in underrepresented fields, greater proximity to institutions, and efforts to shift perceptions around education and employment—are critical to ensuring inclusive outcomes. The study provides timely evidence for policymakers in both emerging and developed contexts who seek to expand access while advancing gender equality.

🧾 A forthcoming working paper by the same authors will examine how the same expansion policy contributed to improvements in female labour force participation.

🌟 Dr Merve Demirel Derebaşoğlu is an accomplished economist with a strong background in the Economics of Education and Gender. Currently serving as a post-doctoral research fellow at the European University Institute, she specialises in policies designed to enhance female education and improve women's labour market outcomes.

🔗 To learn more about the paper: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/729097

🔗 To learn more about Dr Merve Demirel Derebaşoğlu:

https://www.developmentanalytics.org/team/merve-demirel-dereba%C5%9Fo%C4%9Flu%2C-ph.d.-

Photo Credit: Freepik

22/05/2025

🌍 Learnings from the UNICEF’s contributions during Venezuelan Migrant Response in Trinidad and Tobago 📢

📚 More than 30,000 Venezuelans have fled to Trinidad and Tobago due to the ongoing crisis in their homeland. UNICEF and its partners have sought to continuously support the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GoRTT) in its efforts to support families in need and protect the rights of displaced children living in the country.

✨ The Development Analytics team and the UNICEF Eastern Caribbean Area Office have completed the consolidated Monitoring of Humanitarian Cash Programming in Trinidad and Tobago for the Programa TEEN (Transferencias de Efectivo para la Educacion de los Ninos), and Alternative Care Programme (ACP) Cash Intervention and also developed a Learning Framework aimed at sharing key lessons and successes on strengthening national systems for all children.

📚 The Learning Framework takes stock of lessons, approaches and factors enabling success in improving access for vulnerable children of all nationalities into national systems, including, importantly, accredited education, and in strengthening the systems safeguarding them against protection risks and poverty. The Learning Framework is intended as a resource for UNICEF, other stakeholder organizations and actors to continue to build on the successes in Trinidad and Tobago, and to assist those facing similar challenges globally.

🌍 As global displacement and migration trends continue, the lessons from UNICEF's response in Trinidad and Tobago are of particular relevance to other countries facing similar challenges. The integration of humanitarian and development efforts, combined with targeted advocacy and effective multi-sector collaboration, provides useful lessons for addressing the complex needs of displaced populations.

🤝 As the DA team, we extend our gratitude to Jemmimah Wilson (UNICEF ECA) for her invaluable support throughout this project.

✨By conducting rigorous research, Development Analytics continues to support evidence-based decision-making. We remain dedicated to fostering resilience and improving the lives of children and families.

To learn more about our projects on Poverty, Social Protection, and Humanitarian Aid, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/poverty-social-protection-humanitarian-aid

12/05/2025

🌍 Stocktaking of UNICEF’s Work on Care and Support, including Family-Friendly Policies

📢 The Development Analytics team is currently carrying out a project that has been undertaken for the UNICEF Headquarters in New York, focusing on UNICEF’s work on care and support, including family-friendly policies.

💡Care, support, and family-friendly policies are vital for children's well-being, the empowerment of families, and broader societal progress. UNICEF’s commitment to this agenda is increasingly embedded in its global strategic plans and frameworks. In light of this growing institutional focus, a comprehensive stocktake has been initiated to assess how care and support priorities have been implemented across diverse country contexts.

🌍 This study aims to document and analyze UNICEF’s engagements an interventions in relation to care and support related policies across different regions and country income groups focusing on the past five years (2020–2024). The study also assesses how these policies have been integrated into current plans and country-level programming.

📚 A series of country case studies, showcasing varied approaches and outcomes, are also featured in the study. These examples offer valuable insights into the scope, reach, and effectiveness of UNICEF’s efforts to shape equitable and sustainable care and support systems.

We are looking forward to sharing the results of this study once it is completed.

To learn more about our work in gender and women’s empowerment, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/gender-and-womens-empowerment

Photo Credit: © UNICEF/UN0161377/Thuentap

07/05/2025

🌍 Climate change is intensifying natural hazards, exacerbating poverty and increasing vulnerability. Shock-responsive social protection (SRSP), such as cash transfer programmes, plays a vital role in addressing these risks before or during a crisis. The faster the support is delivered, the more effectively it can reduce the shock’s impact—helping affected households meet their needs in a timely, dignified, and cost-efficient manner.

📢Development Analytics team recently completed a project titled “Developing Costed-Contingency Actions and Undertaking an Analysis of Pre-arranged Financing for Shock-Responsive Social Protection” for the UNICEF Europe & Central Asia Regional Office. The study focused on Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Tajikistan—three countries vulnerable to climate-related shocks.
💡By leveraging microsimulation models, the study assessed the socioeconomic impacts of severe floods and examined the effectiveness of various SRSP cash transfer scenarios in reducing post-shock poverty. Our Interactive Tool (Interactive Social Policy Simulators (ISPS)) tailored for each of the study’s countries, enabled dynamic adjustments of parameters (e.g., transfer values, coverage criteria) to support preparedness and facilitate discussion on SRSP planning.

✨ Beyond impact modeling, the study explored current and potential pre-arranged financing mechanisms for SRSP in the study’s countries, emphasizing the need for proactive disaster planning. The study also included in-country capacity building workshops aimed at strengthening stakeholders’ understanding of SRSP design, cost of action and inaction, pre-arranged financing instruments for SRSP, and to present key project findings, and related policy recommendations.

📚The study highlights the high costs of inaction, the trade-offs involved in targeting different shock-responsive social protection (SRSP) mechanisms, the need for investment in core systems strengthening, existing gaps in pre-arranged financing, and opportunities to enhance the design and implementation of pre-arranged finance for SRSP.

🤝 The Development Analytics team extends its deepest gratitude to Diana King (UNICEF Europe & Central Asia) for her invaluable guidance and insight throughout this project. We also sincerely thank Rashad Huseynov (UNICEF Azerbaijan), Irina Kulenovic (UNICEF Bosnia and Herzegovina), Nangar Soomro, Azizakhon Kataeva, and Zamira Komilova (UNICEF Tajikistan) for their dedicated and continued support during the study.

🔗To read more about our recent projects on estimating the impact of shocks and using various cash transfer modalities to alleviate their impact, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/design-of-shock-responsive-social-protection-programmes

🔗To learn more about the Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS), please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/interactive-social-policy-simulator

30/04/2025

We are pleased to highlight a recent publication co-authored by child protection expert and Development Analytics associate Dr Amalee McCoy. The study examines the early outcomes of the Parenting for Lifelong Health (PLH) program in Montenegro. Designed to support child development and strengthen parenting practices, the program is also shedding light on its integration into broader public health strategies in the region.

🔍The study examines the early outcomes of the Parenting for Lifelong Health (PLH) program, which was introduced in Montenegro as part of a broader initiative to enhance child development and improve parenting practices. The findings from the preliminary phase of the program reveal substantial improvements in the quality of parenting, with notable reductions in harsh disciplinary practices and increases in the use of positive parenting strategies. Additionally, the study reports enhanced emotional support provided by parents, which is critical to a child’s cognitive and emotional development. These initial results suggest that the PLH program is a promising intervention for improving both immediate and long-term child outcomes, with the potential to reduce inequalities in early childhood care and development.

💡Beyond the immediate impacts, the study also emphasizes the broader potential for embedding the PLH program within national public health policies. It demonstrates that the program can be effectively integrated into existing health systems, offering a scalable model for improving parenting practices in low-resource settings.

✨The study’s findings contribute significantly to the growing body of evidence supporting early interventions as a means of promoting lifelong health, demonstrating that investing in parenting support can yield substantial benefits for both children and their families. This research underscores the critical role of early childhood interventions in shaping long-term societal health outcomes.

🔗 To read the paper: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11121-024-01682-x

🔗 To learn more about Dr Amalee McCoy’s work: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/team/amalee-mccoy%2C-ph.d.-

Photo Credit: UNICEF Montenegro/Duško Miljanić

14/04/2025

Designing humanitarian cash transfer programmes for intended recipients

Humanitarian aid faces numerous challenges in precisely targeting assistance to those who need it most. These challenges are particularly pronounced in complex humanitarian settings, where financial limitations and contextual intricacies hinder precise targeting efforts.

Partnering with organizations like UNHCR, IFRC, and WFP, we develop forward-thinking targeting strategies for equitable and cost-effective approaches. From Lebanon to Türkiye and Iraq, our team leads pioneering research and interventions to provide insights into vulnerable populations' needs.

Our approach doesn't stop at analysis; we're actively engaged in refining targeting strategies through interactive web applications like the Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS). This tool empowers stakeholders to explore different targeting scenarios and refine their decisions based on real-time data insights.

📘 Read more about our recent targeting assistance for the social safety nets and cash transfer programmes here:https://www.developmentanalytics.org/_files/ugd/b70f3f_56520b4a7cb544f881cd1a08c8e2e1ee.pdf

🔗Or if you're interested in learning more about conducting a study in your country, click here to register your interest: https://form.jotform.com/240043486648056

03/04/2025

📘 OECD Report: Megatrends and the Future of Social Protection

The OECD’s recently published report, Megatrends and the Future of Social Protection, examines how major global trends—such as demographic shifts, evolving labor markets, and climate change—are challenging the sustainability and effectiveness of social protection systems across OECD countries. As these pressures intensify, ensuring that these systems remain inclusive, adaptable, and financially viable is more critical than ever.

🔍 Adapting Social Protection to Megatrends: Key Insights

The main takeaways from the report include the following:

- Demographic Pressures: Ageing populations and declining fertility rates are increasing pension and healthcare costs, prompting reforms like raising retirement ages and supporting longer careers.

- Shifts in Labor Markets: Women’s labor force participation has risen, while part-time work among men is increasing—potentially impacting overall labor supply and pension sustainability.

- Technology & Work: While automation and AI are reshaping job markets, they have not yet led to net job losses. Productivity growth remains key to sustaining social protection funding.

- Green Transition & Social Policy: Carbon taxes and the transition to net-zero emissions will require targeted income support, reskilling programs, and policies to mitigate regional employment disruptions.

Other crucial themes include the evolving nature of work, the need for adaptable welfare systems, and the role of fiscal policies in ensuring long-term social protection sustainability.

🌍 A Call for Collective Action

This report serves as an important call to action for policymakers, businesses, and stakeholders to rethink and modernize social protection frameworks. A collaborative and forward-looking approach is essential to building systems that are resilient, sustainable, and capable of addressing the challenges of the future.

🔗 Learn more about the report: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/megatrends-and-the-future-of-social-protection_6c9202e8-en.html

26/03/2025

Spotlight on Migration & AI Research

We are pleased to spotlight the research of Dr. Derya Ozkul, Development Analytics Associate and Assistant Professor of Sociology at the University of Warwick, whose work explores the politics of migration and displacement. Her 2023 publication, Automating Immigration and Asylum: The Uses of New Technologies in Migration and Asylum Governance in Europe, remains highly relevant as AI-driven technologies continue to shape migration governance across Europe.

📝 Published as part of the Algorithmic Fairness for Asylum Seekers and Refugees (AFAR) Project, the report provides a critical analysis of how AI and automation are being integrated into migration policies across Europe. From risk assessments and document verification to automated processing of visas and asylum applications, these technologies bring significant challenges—particularly in terms of fairness, transparency, and potential bias.

📖 The report concludes that while AI-driven decision-making can expedite migration and asylum procedures for some people, it also introduces serious risks of bias, discrimination, and lack of transparency. Automated risk assessments, speech and dialect recognition, mobile phone data extraction, and electronic monitoring are increasingly used with limited oversight, often prioritizing state efficiency over migrants' rights. Without proper governance, these systems risk reinforcing inequalities and limiting access to justice. The report underscores the urgent need for strong regulatory frameworks to ensure that these technologies do not undermine fundamental rights and emphasizes the role of civil society and legal challenges in holding migration systems accountable.

📄 Read the full report here: https://www.rsc.ox.ac.uk/publications/automating-immigration-and-asylum-the-uses-of-new-technologies-in-migration-and-asylum-governance-in-europe

🔗 To learn more about Dr Derya Ozkul, please follow: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/team/derya-%C3%B6zkul%2C-ph.d.-

12/03/2025

🌍 Monitoring of Humanitarian Cash Programming in Trinidad and Tobago 📢

📚 More than 30,000 Venezuelans have fled to Trinidad and Tobago due to the ongoing crisis in their homeland. UNICEF and its partners have sought to continuously support the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GoRTT) in its efforts to support families in need and protect the rights of displaced children living in the country.

✨ The Development Analytics team recently completed the project titled "Monitoring of Humanitarian Cash Programming in Trinidad and Tobago" with the UNICEF Office for the Eastern Caribbean Area (ECA).

💡The study presents the findings of a monitoring exercise for two cash transfer programmes implemented by UNICEF in response to the Venezuelan refugee crisis in Trinidad and Tobago, the Programa TEEN (Transferencias de Efectivo para la Educacion de los Ninos) and Alternative Care Programme (ACP) Cash Intervention. Through providing financial support, Programa TEEN is aimed at improving access to education for Venezuelan migrant children in Trinidad and Tobago, while ACP Cash was aimed at supporting unaccompanied and separated children (UASC).

📚 Additionally, as part of this study, a Learning Framework Report has been prepared, consolidating the key lessons learned from UNICEF’s contributions to the multi-stakeholder response and articulating the strategies employed to address challenges and meet the needs of all children. The Framework serves as a resource for UNICEF, other stakeholder organizations and actors to continue to build on the successes and lessons in Trinidad and Tobago, and to assist those facing similar challenges globally.

🤝 As the DA team, we extend our gratitude to Jemmimah Wilson (UNICEF ECA) for her invaluable support throughout this project.

✨By conducting rigorous research, Development Analytics continues to support evidence-based decision-making and the effective implementation of cash transfer programs. We remain dedicated to fostering resilience and improving the lives of children and families.

To learn more about our projects on Poverty, Social Protection, and Humanitarian Aid, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/poverty-social-protection-humanitarian-aid

Development Analytics