http://www.developmentanalytics.org/

Development Analytics, 9 Marlborough Court, Oxford (2026)

20/01/2026

Developing costed-contingency actions and undertaking an analysis of pre-arranged financing for shock-responsive social protection

🌍 Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of shocks, making shock-responsive social protection (SRSP) more critical than ever. Timely, well-designed cash support can significantly reduce post-shock poverty and vulnerability.

📊 Development Analytics completed a timely study “Developing Costed-Contingency Actions and Analysing Pre-arranged Financing for SRSP” for UNICEF Europe & Central Asia Regional Office, focusing on Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Tajikistan.

💡 Using microsimulation models the study assessed the poverty impacts of floods and the effectiveness of alternative SRSP cash transfer scenarios. Our Interactive Tool (Interactive Social Policy Simulators (ISPS)) enabled dynamic adjustments of parameters (e.g., transfer values, coverage criteria) to support preparedness and facilitate discussion on SRSP planning. The analysis also examined pre-arranged financing options for SRSP emphasising the need for proactive planning.

📚 Key insights from this study are summarised in a summary report that can be accessed here: https://knowledge.unicef.org/ECAR/resource/developing-costed-contingency-actions-and-undertaking-analysis-pre-arranged-financing

📚 A blog post was also prepared by Diana King (UNICEF Europe & Central Asia), which clearly distil the findings and policy implications for SRSP planning. The post can be accessed here: https://socialprotection.org/discover/blog/funding-shock-responsive-social-protection-responses-lessons-developing-contingency

🔗To read more about our recent projects on estimating the impact of shocks and using various cash transfer modalities to alleviate their impact, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/design-of-shock-responsive-social-protection-programmes

🔗To learn more about the Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS), please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/interactive-social-policy-simulator

13/11/2025

We are pleased to share the latest article co-authored by Dr Maria Clara Oliveira, who supports Development Analytics’ mission as an Associate. The article, titled “Crises and Policy Change: Examining the Trajectory of Mozambique’s Cash Transfer Program,” presents a longitudinal analysis of Mozambique’s flagship social protection scheme—originally established as the Food Subsidy Programme (FSP) and later restructured into the Basic Social Subsidy Programme (BSSP). The article contributes to broader debates on social policy change by examining whether—and under what conditions—successive crises have driven reform in Mozambique’s cash transfer architecture over the past three decades.

💡Drawing on a rich historical account and grounded in policy change theory, the authors find that, contrary to conventional assumptions, crises do not consistently trigger meaningful change. While socioeconomic shocks—such as the 2008 food price crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic—have occasionally prompted temporary expansions or procedural tweaks, these have not led to durable structural reforms. Even amid mounting poverty, the coverage of the BSSP remains limited, reaching only about 15% of eligible households. Notably, environmental shocks such as Cyclone Idai and the ongoing insurgency in Cabo Delgado, despite their devastating impact, have not been accompanied by systematic program adaptations. The findings challenge the applicability of “crisis as catalyst” theories in low-income, aid-dependent contexts.

🌍The study also underscores the complex role of international actors. While donors have been instrumental in pushing for cash transfer expansion, sometimes bypassing the state budget to fund programs directly—the intended scale-up has often stalled at the implementation stage. This reflects not only capacity constraints but also domestic political choices, as illustrated by government narratives that individualize poverty. The authors call for a more nuanced understanding of the interaction between crises, institutional inertia, donor influence, and state agency. Their work adds critical empirical insights to the literature on welfare trajectories in the Global South and raises important questions about the resilience and adaptability of social protection systems under strain.

📄 To read the full article here: https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2025.2498579

To learn more about Dr Maria Clara Oliveira: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/team/maria-clara-gabriel-de-oliveira%2C-ph.d.

🔗 Photo Credit: ©UNICEF Mozambique

17/09/2025

🌍 Exciting News from Development Analytics! 🌍

📢Development Analytics is pleased to announce that we have been awarded a Long-Term Agreement (LTA) with the World Food Programme (WFP) for the Provision of Impact Evaluation Services, covering all geographical regions where WFP operates. Through this collaboration, Development Analytics will contribute to WFP’s evidence base and support its vital efforts to improve outcomes for vulnerable populations worldwide.

🌐The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is the world’s largest humanitarian organization saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity.

📊In the complex and diverse contexts within which WFP operates, there is rising demand for evidence of results of WFP policies and programmes. The evaluation function is central to meeting this demand, providing independent assessments of outcomes and impact.

🤝This new agreement with WFP underscores our commitment to delivering rigorous, evidence-based evaluations and research to inform policy and programme design. It also stands alongside our existing Long-Term Agreement with UNICEF on Child Poverty and Social Protection.

🌟We look forward to working with the WFP across regions to generate high-quality insights that contribute to more impactful policies and programmes.

🔗For more details about the LTA please see: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/wfp-lta-announcement

Photo Credit: WFP.

11/08/2025

🌍Costing and designing Early Childhood Education (ECE) service expansion for maximum impact

Investing in ECE is a pivotal strategy for fostering child development that sets children on a path for a more equitable future. With so many available models to expand ECE services, costing different options and assessing which children benefit from each offers invaluable insights for policy making.

In the last decade, we have led various research projects related to ECE and education outcomes, for various organizations, including the World Bank, UNICEF, and Agence Française de Développement (AfD). We have extensive experience in devising simulation models to assess the anticipated impact of social policies and programs on population and child outcomes, along with calculating the total costs associated with such policies. Our experience further extends to devising simulation models specifically tailored for ECE expansion policies.

Our approach doesn't stop at analysis; we are actively engaged in presenting the research through interactive tools. Such tools empowers stakeholders to explore different scenarios, compare and contrast them through examining several indicators and refine their decisions based on real-time data insights.

📖Read more about our projects on estimating the distributional impact and costs of ECE services expansion policies here:

https://www.developmentanalytics.org/designing-and-costing-ece

🤝Or if you're interested in learning more about conducting a study in your country, kindly register your interest to schedule an online meeting and we would be happy to discuss your research needs and how we can support them:

https://form.jotform.com/241124655192958

04/08/2025

📘The World Bank’s new State of Social Protection 2025: The 2-Billion-Person Challenge, published in April 2025, sheds light on both remarkable progress and urgent gaps in global social protection.

🌍Social protection comprises public policies and programs designed to safeguard individuals and families from economic and social hardship, aiming to secure a basic standard of wellbeing for everyone. Core components of social protection—social assistance, social insurance, and labor market programs—support households and workers in navigating crises, alleviating poverty, and pursuing employment opportunities.

📊Over the past decade, low- and middle-income countries have expanded coverage to a record 4.7 billion people—an increase of 10 percentage points between 2010 and 2022. Yet, critical disparities persist: 2 billion people remain uncovered or inadequately protected, including more than 1 billion in Africa and South Asia. In low-income countries, three in four people receive no form of social protection at all.

⚖️ The report emphasizes that coverage alone is not enough. For 400 million people, benefits are too minimal to lift them out of poverty or shield them from shocks. On average, social assistance transfers in low-income countries amount to just 11% of poor households’ income. Gender inequality remains a pressing concern as well, with women receiving only 81 cents for every dollar men receive in benefits. These gaps are most pronounced in fragile, conflict-affected, and hunger-prone regions—precisely where robust safety nets are most needed.

🚀 To close these gaps, the World Bank urges a threefold approach: expand coverage through investments in delivery systems, tailor support to foster long-term self-reliance, and build shock-responsive infrastructure capable of protecting people during crises. At current growth rates, reaching full coverage for the poorest could take up to two decades. However, smarter use of existing resources—such as better targeting of cash transfers—could fund nearly half the effort needed to cover the bottom 20% of the population. The Bank is committed to supporting governments to reach 500 million more people by 2030, with a focus on equity, resilience, and long-term opportunity.

📘 Read the full report:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/socialprotection/publication/state-of-social-protection-2025-2-billion-person-challenge

30/07/2025

📢 Deadline Extended: apply by August 25, 2025

_______________________________________________________________________

🌐 Development Analytics is excited to announce a new opportunity for aspiring junior professionals in the field of social policy and quantitative data analysis! 🚀

🔍 Position Vacant: Junior Quantitative Analyst

📅 Application deadline: August 25, 2025

We are currently seeking a highly motivated Junior Quantitative Analyst to join our team.

The Junior Quantitative Analyst will be responsible for qualitative and quantitative data management, statistical analysis, data coding, and research support to studies and evaluations conducted by Development Analytics across different thematic areas of poverty, education, labour, social protection, forced migration, and health. She/he will be a core part of the research team. This position is remote and may require travel and staying in the regions where projects are active. Students already pursuing a master’s degree are highly encouraged to apply and be evaluated as an intern.

🔗 For detailed information about the position, including qualifications and application instructions, please visit: https://lnkd.in/dRftb_wi

🔗 To submit your application, please fill out the following form: https://lnkd.in/dn6cgXJT

If you know someone who would be a great fit for this role, tag them in the comments or share this post to spread the word! 🌐

Development Analytics is committed to creating a diverse and inclusive work environment. We encourage individuals of all backgrounds to apply.

27/06/2025

🌍This week, we would like to highlight a new World Bank Policy Research Working Paper: Global Socio-economic Resilience to Natural Disasters. Published in May 2025, this global study estimates the well-being losses and recovery times resulting from natural disasters in 132 countries—shifting the focus from asset losses alone to a more people-centred understanding of disaster impacts. The findings highlight that each dollar lost in physical assets translates, on average, into well-being losses equivalent to a $2 drop in national consumption, with the poorest bearing the heaviest burden. The poorest income quintile within each country incurs only 9% of national asset losses but accounts for 33% of well-being losses.

📊At the heart of this work is a global microsimulation model that estimates disaster impacts on representative households across income groups. The model captures how losses in income and assets affect consumption and uses an economic utility framework to translate these shocks into well-being impacts.

📝 This study evaluates ten policy options and concludes that socio-economic and financial strategies—such as insurance schemes and social protection—can serve as effective complements to asset-based approaches like improved construction standards. It also finds that interventions aimed at low-income groups tend to deliver greater returns by reducing well-being losses more efficiently per dollar spent.

📉 On a similar note, the Development Analytics team has modelled and estimated the impact of shocks ranging from disasters such as earthquakes and floods to the COVID-19 pandemic for countries including Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tajikistan, Georgia, and St Lucia. Following the estimation of the shock’s impact, we further simulate the poverty-mitigating potential of different cash transfer schemes responding to the shocks. By doing this, we support policymakers with an evidence base for fine-tuning social protection interventions, ensuring that they are both responsive and adaptive to the evolving needs of the affected communities. We also utilise our interactive web application, the Interactive Social Policy Simulator (ISPS) to showcase these results in an interactive and flexible way.

🔗To read the World Bank working paper: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/ed72d459-6715-435a-ad06-7a3ddc5ff23c

🔗To learn more about our work on Design of Shock-Responsive Social Protection Programmes:
https://www.developmentanalytics.org/design-of-shock-responsive-social-protection-programmes

🔗To learn more about the Interactive Social Policy Simulator: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/interactive-social-policy-simulator

02/06/2025

🌐 Development Analytics is excited to announce a new opportunity for aspiring junior professionals in the field of social policy and quantitative data analysis! 🚀

🔍 Position Vacant: Junior Quantitative Analyst

📅 Application deadline: June 20, 2025

We are currently seeking a highly motivated Junior Quantitative Analyst to join our team.

The Junior Quantitative Analyst will be responsible for qualitative and quantitative data management, statistical analysis, data coding, and research support to studies and evaluations conducted by Development Analytics across different thematic areas of poverty, education, labour, social protection, forced migration, and health. She/he will be a core part of the research team. This position is remote and may require travel and staying in the regions where projects are active. Students already pursuing a master’s degree are highly encouraged to apply and be evaluated as an intern.

🔗 For detailed information about the position, including qualifications and application instructions, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/junior-quantitative-analyst2025

🔗 To submit your application, please fill out the following form: https://form.jotform.com/251483716636968

If you know someone who would be a great fit for this role, tag them in the comments or share this post to spread the word! 🌐

Development Analytics is committed to creating a diverse and inclusive work environment. We encourage individuals of all backgrounds to apply.

30/05/2025

📑We would like to highlight the publication released in February 2025 by UN Women and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), titled “Financing Care Infrastructure: An Opportunity for Public Development Banks to Pave the Way for Tomorrow’s Equality.”

💡In a world grappling with deepening care crises and widening gender inequalities, this publication presents a compelling case for why and how Public Development Banks (PDBs) can play a pivotal role in financing care infrastructure, services and physical infrastructure that directly and indirectly support care work.

Holding an estimated cumulative sum of assets of more than US$23 trillion and controlling over 10 per cent of global public and private investments, PDBs are uniquely positioned to provide long-term, large-scale financing to develop robust care infrastructure and services and to support governments in implementing policy reforms that recognize and value care work.

📈Drawing on the experiences of 8 development banks across diverse regions, the report outlines five key opportunities for PDBs to promote gender equality in relation to care infrastructure:

1. Invest in accessible and high-quality care services

2. Embed care and gender analysis in infrastructure projects

3. Promote decent jobs in the care sector

4. Support government-led care system transformation

5. Fund research to inform evidence-based policymaking

🌱With care work underpinning the well-being of societies—and overwhelmingly carried out by women—investments in care are not only essential for advancing SDG 5 (Gender Equality), but also for enabling inclusive economic growth and resilient societies. The future of equality starts with recognising and financing the care economy. As this report highlights, Public Development Banks have a unique opportunity—and responsibility—to transform care systems into engines of equity and development.

🔗 Read the full report: https://www.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2025/02/financing-care-infrastructure

27/05/2025

📘 New Research on Higher Education and Gender Equality in Türkiye

We would like to highlight a recent study co-authored by the economist and DA Research Associate Dr Merve Demirel Derebaşoğlu. Published in 2024 in the Journal of Human Capital, the study examines the effects of Türkiye’s large-scale higher education expansion between 2005 and 2009 on gender disparities in tertiary education. The reform increased university slots by over 60%, with the establishment of 40 new public universities, offering a unique opportunity to assess how rapid capacity growth affects educational attainment across genders.

📄 The study finds that while overall access to higher education improved for both men and women, the gender gap in attainment did not narrow beyond the existing time trend. Notably, the expansion in engineering programs—fields typically preferred by men—disproportionately benefited male students, while the more balanced growth in social sciences had a neutral effect on the gender gap. These findings highlight the importance of considering field-level preferences and structural barriers when designing equitable education policies.

📋 Importantly, the paper shows that simply increasing the number of university seats may not be sufficient to address deep-rooted inequalities. Targeted interventions—such as support for women in underrepresented fields, greater proximity to institutions, and efforts to shift perceptions around education and employment—are critical to ensuring inclusive outcomes. The study provides timely evidence for policymakers in both emerging and developed contexts who seek to expand access while advancing gender equality.

🧾 A forthcoming working paper by the same authors will examine how the same expansion policy contributed to improvements in female labour force participation.

🌟 Dr Merve Demirel Derebaşoğlu is an accomplished economist with a strong background in the Economics of Education and Gender. Currently serving as a post-doctoral research fellow at the European University Institute, she specialises in policies designed to enhance female education and improve women's labour market outcomes.

🔗 To learn more about the paper: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/729097

🔗 To learn more about Dr Merve Demirel Derebaşoğlu:

https://www.developmentanalytics.org/team/merve-demirel-dereba%C5%9Fo%C4%9Flu%2C-ph.d.-

Photo Credit: Freepik

22/05/2025

🌍 Learnings from the UNICEF’s contributions during Venezuelan Migrant Response in Trinidad and Tobago 📢

📚 More than 30,000 Venezuelans have fled to Trinidad and Tobago due to the ongoing crisis in their homeland. UNICEF and its partners have sought to continuously support the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GoRTT) in its efforts to support families in need and protect the rights of displaced children living in the country.

✨ The Development Analytics team and the UNICEF Eastern Caribbean Area Office have completed the consolidated Monitoring of Humanitarian Cash Programming in Trinidad and Tobago for the Programa TEEN (Transferencias de Efectivo para la Educacion de los Ninos), and Alternative Care Programme (ACP) Cash Intervention and also developed a Learning Framework aimed at sharing key lessons and successes on strengthening national systems for all children.

📚 The Learning Framework takes stock of lessons, approaches and factors enabling success in improving access for vulnerable children of all nationalities into national systems, including, importantly, accredited education, and in strengthening the systems safeguarding them against protection risks and poverty. The Learning Framework is intended as a resource for UNICEF, other stakeholder organizations and actors to continue to build on the successes in Trinidad and Tobago, and to assist those facing similar challenges globally.

🌍 As global displacement and migration trends continue, the lessons from UNICEF's response in Trinidad and Tobago are of particular relevance to other countries facing similar challenges. The integration of humanitarian and development efforts, combined with targeted advocacy and effective multi-sector collaboration, provides useful lessons for addressing the complex needs of displaced populations.

🤝 As the DA team, we extend our gratitude to Jemmimah Wilson (UNICEF ECA) for her invaluable support throughout this project.

✨By conducting rigorous research, Development Analytics continues to support evidence-based decision-making. We remain dedicated to fostering resilience and improving the lives of children and families.

To learn more about our projects on Poverty, Social Protection, and Humanitarian Aid, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/poverty-social-protection-humanitarian-aid

12/05/2025

🌍 Stocktaking of UNICEF’s Work on Care and Support, including Family-Friendly Policies

📢 The Development Analytics team is currently carrying out a project that has been undertaken for the UNICEF Headquarters in New York, focusing on UNICEF’s work on care and support, including family-friendly policies.

💡Care, support, and family-friendly policies are vital for children's well-being, the empowerment of families, and broader societal progress. UNICEF’s commitment to this agenda is increasingly embedded in its global strategic plans and frameworks. In light of this growing institutional focus, a comprehensive stocktake has been initiated to assess how care and support priorities have been implemented across diverse country contexts.

🌍 This study aims to document and analyze UNICEF’s engagements an interventions in relation to care and support related policies across different regions and country income groups focusing on the past five years (2020–2024). The study also assesses how these policies have been integrated into current plans and country-level programming.

📚 A series of country case studies, showcasing varied approaches and outcomes, are also featured in the study. These examples offer valuable insights into the scope, reach, and effectiveness of UNICEF’s efforts to shape equitable and sustainable care and support systems.

We are looking forward to sharing the results of this study once it is completed.

To learn more about our work in gender and women’s empowerment, please visit: https://www.developmentanalytics.org/gender-and-womens-empowerment

Photo Credit: © UNICEF/UN0161377/Thuentap

Development Analytics