18/10/2025                                                                            
                                    
                                                                            
                                            «  The Planning Fallacy » a tendency to underestimate the time tasks will take to complete was first identified by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Twerky in the late seventies. It’s associated with  an optimistic mind set, expecting everything to go smoothly . Personally, I’ve spent many years battling this particular fallacy, ( eg by multiplying by two my first estimate ) but I’m still not completely out of the woods on this one !                                        
                                    
                                                                        
                                        We all have those friends who are shockingly, chronically late to everything—and those who are always early. The question is why are we this way and how can we learn to co-exist? There are many reasons that contribute to how we manage time, and they of course depend on a variety of individualized factors, but one theory floating around is actually how full or empty we see the proverbial cup.
From an article posted on University of Southern California's School of Psychology site, it all comes down to our bias toward optimism or pessimism. For the late arrivers, it's called the planning fallacy. "Psychologist Daniel Kahneman and colleague Amos Tversky introduced the concept in 1979, defining it as 'the tendency to underestimate the amount of time needed to complete a future task, due in part to the reliance on overly optimistic performance scenarios.'" 
In other words, they might feel it will all "flow" as it's supposed to, so there's no need to plan ahead. "Psychologists call this mindset 'optimism bias.' While being optimistic has its benefits, such as an improved state of well-being, getting caught in the constant cycle of optimism bias can cause issues at work that impact productivity."
In a piece for The Decision Lab, author Kira Warje,further explains, "Whether it's building a house, launching a product, or studying for an exam, people tend to create overly optimistic timelines and budgets. This happens because we focus too much on the best-case scenario and ignore relevant historical data or potential setbacks." 
She also explains the notion that an outsider would estimate time differently, writing, "Interestingly, the planning fallacy only affects estimations about one’s own task completion times. Outside observers tend to lean in the opposite direction, overestimating the time needed to complete a task."
As for the early-arrivers, we perhaps overestimate the amount of time something will take. Often this is driven by anxiety in general, but to couch it in similar terms, this would be a pessimism bias.
Culinary writer and chef Maya Floresshares eight traits that people who often arrive early share. One is: "They have a physical discomfort with rushing." Below, read more about the people who are late, early, and (for a little inspiration) right on time.