19/07/2020
India's case fatality rate may be falling and fall may be real . Was looking at period wise mortality over last 2 months ( applied 2 weeks lag period for death ) .The case fatality in India gradually fell from 4.9 to 3.1 despite increase in test positivity from 4 % to 8.3%. This can be due to multiple factors
1. The medical community has learned better to handle this virus . Like usage of dexamethaose and heparin
2, May be more young people, who have very high chance of recovery, are getting affected more due to increase in mobility during post lock down period
3, More transmissible and less virulent strain may be the predominant strain
4, Deaths are not reported properly
With huge spike in cases over last 2 weeks if the hospital facilities get saturated and CFR may rise. By august end we will have clearer data on this
PS: These type of analysis are not fool proof and has fallacies .
