01/07/2024
TODAY’S BIAS: SURVIVORSHIP BIAS
DEFINITION AND EXPLANATION: The survivorship bias is a cognitive error that occurs when we focus on the existing elements of something (i.e., the ones that “survived”), while ignoring those that didn’t endure. This bias arises when we form conclusions based solely on successes without also considering failures.
Whether we’re aware of it or not, the survivorship bias pops up in our everyday lives. A news headline champions the success of some celebrity-endorsed diet while failing to mention the numerous people who failed to achieve the same results. Or a television program suggests that the “surviving” Egyptian pyramids couldn’t have been built with such craftsmanship and precision, without mentioning the many failed attempts that have since crumbled.
But we can be fooled by only considering “winners.” For example, we often hear about the inspiring successes of maverick entrepreneurs such as Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates, but by overlooking those who failed we could end up with a distorted understanding of the challenges they faced on their journeys.
Many of us witnessed survivorship bias throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. Some-expressing anti-vaccination sentiments-claimed “no one regrets not taking the vaccine.” Many examples of people who suffered or caused others to suffer as a result of not being vaccinated refute this claim. However, even if it were true, those who died as a result of not being vaccinated cannot object to the claim. As another example, some argue that SARS-CoV-2 isn’t that dangerous because they (and those they know) survived without serious complications, neglecting those who weren’t so fortunate.
Survivorship bias can also influence our personal growth and decision-making. For instance, when we seek advice from successful individuals, we might overlook the experiences of those who faced serious setbacks and failures. If we only consider the opinions of those who’ve succeeded, we might develop unrealistic expectations and face discouragement when we encounter obstacles on our own paths to success. A more balanced perspective—one that includes examples of both successes and failures—equips us to navigate obstacles and pursue success with resilience and flexibility.
HOW TO OVERCOME: While we’re all prone to falling for the survivorship bias, there are several strategies we can use to mitigate it. First, be aware that we are all prone to this thinking error. Second, don’t be fooled by only looking at the winners, and remember that failure is often forgotten. Making informed decisions requires us to consider all data, as the challenges, mistakes, and failures of those who didn’t survive have much to teach us.
We can also keep in mind that randomness and luck often play a role in success and failure, and sometimes it really is just a matter of chance. And we can make a concerted effort to seek out those invisible data that are lurking beyond our awareness.
WRITTEN BY JON GUY Think Straight
MORE ON THIS AND OTHER BIASES: https://thinkingispower.com/guide-to-the-most-common-cognitive-biases-and-heuristics/
