25/04/2020
COVID DATA OF EUROPE AND ASIA
It is difficult to compare the COVID data of all countries, without considering their populations and test conduction rates. To put things in perspective, I have prepared a few tables showing data of Asian and European countries (from worldometers.info, as on 25 Apr, 9 am). Small countries with population less than 5 million have been excluded; as has been China whose data is not reliable).
*Table 1* shows the top 15 countries of Europe and Asia in terms of total cases. This data is familiar to most of us. However, the total number of cases is bound to be higher in countries with high populations, and doesn't make much sense. E.g. population of India is higher than the populations of next 10 most populous countries of Asia combined.
*Table 2* shows the top countries in terms of cases infected per 10,000 population, which is a more useful figure to compare the disease spread. Countries such as Belgium, Ireland and Switzerland are worse affected than Italy in Europe; and countries such as Singapore and Israel are worse affected than Turkey/Iran in Asia (new countries entering a chart, as compared to previous charts, are shown in italics). However, this too has a caveat. Countries testing more per million population are bound to show higher number of positive cases, and testing too should be brought into the picture.
*Table 3* is the most important one, showing the number of cases per 1000 tests in each country. Though countries doing selective testing in symptomatic people or contacts (e.g. India) are likely to show higher percentage of positive people, this serves as a good working index to compare the disease burden in different countries. Not surprisingly, France, Spain, Belgium and UK are the worst affected countries in Europe; and Iran and Afghanistan in Asia. India comes quite low down at 13th place in Asia, despite its one of the lowest testing rates of all countries, largely due to the stringent lockdown. Importantly, there is not much difference in the numbers between European and Asian countries in this chart, with most European countries showing figures of 100-200, and most Asian countries showing figures of 50-150. The notion that Asian/African countries are relatively protected from Coronavirus due to genetic and environmental factors does not seem to be true, and the difference might largely be due to the lower rates of testing in these nations.
Lastly, it is the mortality data which ultimately matters. *Table 4* shows the proportional mortality data of top 15 European and Asian countries, which would depend on the population characteristics (age, comorbidities) and healthcare infrastructure/ preparedness. Eight European countries (Belgium, France, UK, Italy, Sweden, Netherlands, Hungary, Spain) and one Asian country (Indonesia) fare poorly with more than 10% case mortality. It should be noted that Germany and Portugal in Europe, and Singapore and Saudi Arabia in Asia have managed to keep their mortality low, not making it into the list. India, being the diabetic capital of the world, comes in top 5 Asian countries, with higher mortality than its neighbouring countries- Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
One needs to analyse such data to understand the success of COVID measures taken by each country.
