14/12/2021
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 1
Severe Tropical Storm “ ”
Issued at 11:00 PM, 14 December 2021
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 AM tomorrow
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “RAI” HAS ENTERED THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WAS NAMED “ODETTE”.
Location of Center (10:00 PM)
The center of Severe Tropical Storm “ODETTE” was estimated based on all available data at 890 km East of Mindanao (8.3°N, 134.4°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 125 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement
West Northwestward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to 420 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours)
Visayas
The southeastern portion of Eastern Samar (Guiuan, Mercedes, Salcedo) Dinagat Islands, the eastern portion of Surigao del Norte (Claver, Surigao City, Tagana-An, Placer, Gigaquit, Bacuag) including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, and the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (Carrascal, Cantilan, Madrid, Cortes, Carmen, Lanuza)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Tomorrow: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains are possible over Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands due to the trough and the outermost rain bands of “ODETTE”
• Thursday: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Camiguin, and Misamis Oriental. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Leyte, Southern Leyte, the southern portion of Eastern Samar, Bohol, Siquijor, and the rest of Caraga. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, Zamboanga del Norte, and the rest of Visayas and Northern Mindanao
• Friday: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Central Visayas, Western Visayas, and the portion of Palawan including Cuyo and Cagayancillo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over the rest of Visayas, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, the central portion of Palawan, Calamian Islands, and Dinagat Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga del Norte, Quezon, and the rest of MIMAROPA and Caraga.
• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps, and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
Severe Winds
• Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale) with higher gusts will be experienced within any of the areas where TCWS #1 is currently in effect during the passage of the severe tropical storm. This may generally bring up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.
• Areas under TCWS will be expanded in succeeding bulletins, while the hoisted wind signals in some localities of the country will be upgraded as “ODETTE” moves closer. The highest level of wind signal that may be hoisted during the passage of “ODETTE” is TCWS #3 due to possible destructive typhoon-force winds in localities near or along the path of this tropical cyclone.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of Severe Tropical Storm “ODETTE” and the prevailing Northeast Monsoon, a Gale Warning remains effect for the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the eastern and western seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas, and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #46 (Intermediate) issued at 11:00 PM today.
• Within the same period, moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.1 m) will prevail over the remaining seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas, and the western and northern seaboards of Mindanao. These conditions are risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• “ODETTE” is forecast to move west northwestward tonight through tomorrow, then westward beginning Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of this tropical cyclone is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Caraga or Eastern Visayas on Thursday afternoon or evening. Afterwards, the center “ODETTE” will continue moving generally westward and cross several provinces in Central and Western Visayas regions before emerging over the Sulu Sea on Friday morning or afternoon. After passing near or over the Cuyo archipelago, this tropical cyclone is forecast to cross the northern portion of Palawan on Friday evening.
• Further intensification is expected tomorrow through Thursday as the severe tropical storm crosses the Philippine Sea east of Mindanao. “ODETTE” is forecast to intensify into a typhoon within 12 hours and may reach a peak intensity of 155 km/h prior to making landfall on Thursday afternoon or evening. This tropical cyclone may see some slight weakening as it crosses the Visayas and Palawan, but it is forecast to remain within the typhoon category. Re-intensification is likely once “ODETTE” emerges over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 AM tomorrow.
