16/07/2025
24-HOUR PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST
Issued at 4:00 AM, 17 July 2025
SYNOPSIS: At 3:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "CRISING" was estimated based on all available data at 530 km East of Juban, Sorsogon (13.0°N, 128.9°E), with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h. Southwest Monsoon affecting Mindanao, and the western sections of Luzon and Visayas.
Forecast Weather Conditions
Area: Metro Manila, rest of Central Luzon, rest of CALABARZON, rest of MIMAROPA, Central Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, rest of Caraga, La Union, and Pangasinan
Weather Condition: Cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms
Caused By: Southwest Monsoon
Impacts: Possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains
Area: The rest of Luzon
Weather Condition: Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms
Caused By: Southwest Monsoon
Impacts: Possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 4
Tropical Depression
Issued at 5:00 AM, 17 July 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
“CRISING” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SEA EAST OF BICOL REGION.
Location of Center (4:00 AM): The center of Tropical Depression CRISING was estimated based on all available data at 535 km East of Juban, Sorsogon (13.1°N, 128.9°E).
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa
Present Movement: West northwestward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Luzon
Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, the northeastern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao), Quirino, Kalinga, the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Sadanga, Barlig, Paracelis, Natonin), the eastern portion of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista, Aguinaldo, Mayoyao, Banaue, Hingyon, Lagawe, Lamut), the northeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi) and Apayao
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 7 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone CRISING and the Southwest Monsoon.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The Southwest Monsoon will bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Batangas, Quezon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, and Sarangani.
• Tomorrow: Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental.
• Saturday (19 July): Metro Manila, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Lanao Del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• CRISING will move generally northwestward over the next 48 hours. A landfall scenario over mainland Cagayan tomorrow evening to Saturday (19 July) early morning is possible. Afterwards, it will move west northwestward traversing the northern portion of Northern Luzon, and may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Saturday (19 July) evening or Sunday (20 July) morning.
