07/08/2020
Wondering when we will start group rides? Out of an abundance of caution, we made the difficult decision to suspend Spidermonkey group rides for the the 2020 season. We cannot take the risk of anybody getting COVID-19 on one of our rides, and we feel that large group rides in Chicago are likely to present that risk. We are sharing our rationale in making this decision to assist you in making your own decision about whether and how you will ride to stay safe.
We made this decision based on the following data:
COVID-19 prevalence in Cook county, hospital capacity, and the Restore Illinois plan, all available here: http://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19
The “Belgian-Dutch” simulation data on transmission of virus-sized particles in a draft or slipstream, available here: http://www.urbanphysics.net/COVID19_Aero_Paper.pdf.
Information from cycling tours earlier this year during which COVID-19 transmission likely occurred, available here: https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/latest-news/cycling-and-coronavirus-everything-you-need-to-know-450425
Data on the effectiveness of cloth face coverings. Here are references: https://academic.oup.com/annweh/article/54/7/789/202744
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252
We live in a high-risk area. Cook County has the most COVID-19 cases out of any county in the USA. 183 out of every 10,000 Chicago residents (nearly 2%) are COVID-19 positive, and 9 out of 10,000 have died. The number of new cases has dropped from the peak in early to mid-May, but is still at the same level it was in early April. Based on the prevalence of COVID-19 in Chicago, it would not be a surprise if someone who you rode with or interacted with on a Spidermonkey team ride with 25+ riders was COVID-19 positive.
Hospitals have more capacity than they did in May but even so, half of the ICU beds in Cook county and 70% of the available ventilators are being used by COVID-19 patients. We do have occasional crashes on our group rides resulting in a hospital visit, about once every 2 years. Now is not the time to be using hospital resources or increasing your risk of COVID-19 by going to a hospital if it can be avoided.
The state of Illinois Department of Public Health has developed Restore Illinois, a detailed phased reopening plan. Currently we are in Phase 3 (gatherings of 10 or fewer permitted) and are on track to reach Phase 4 (gatherings of 25 or fewer permitted) in July. Effective face coverings and social distancing are recommended until Phase 5, when there is a vaccine readily available, highly effective treatment, or no new cases for a sustained period of time.
Two lines of evidence suggest that group riding is not “social distancing”. First, the Belgian-Dutch simulation data argue that the safe distance between two cyclists going 18 MPH is at least 20 meters (65 feet), due to the possibility of exhaled virus particles being taken up in the draft. More convincingly, Chinese riders from two different teams in the Tour de Langkawi and riders and staff from multiple teams in the UAE tour contracted COVID-19. These data are not definitive, but they suggest that COVID-19 could be transmitted during pack riding.
Cloth face coverings certainly reduce the risk of transmitting COVID-19. They do so most effectively when worn by the person who is COVID-19 positive by reducing the speed and distance that viral particles travel after heavy breathing, coughing, or sneezing. Their effectiveness as a barrier to protect the uninfected person is 40-80% depending on fabric and mask fit, and is reduced when particles travel faster. It is therefore possible that face coverings do not offer adequate protection from COVID-19 virus particle transmission during group rides.
While Spidermonkey Cycling will not have any group rides until Illinois reaches Phase 5, we acknowledge that everyone’s experience with COVID-19 is unique and the decision to ride or not to ride is individual. We encourage all cyclists to strictly adhere to the Restore Illinois guidelines while getting outside, exercising, and staying safe and healthy. We will get through this and come back when this pandemic is over, stronger than ever.
Abstract. A shortage of disposable filtering facepiece respirators can be expected during a pandemic respiratory infection such as influenza A. Some individual
