07/07/2020
PLEASE take this seriously folks!!! ...
"๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค ๐จ๐ ๐ ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐๐-๐๐?"
***Background: Part of the job of an epidemiologist is to sift through tons of studies to find the good ones and w**d out the bad ones with biases. Some of these biases are very sneaky which is why we have entire courses on recognizing them.
With that said, we now know how COVID-19 spreads, we know who is at risk, and we know how to protect ourselves and others (see my previous posts for all.the.data.and.science).***
๐ป๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐๐-๐
๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐.
Within each activity, you can see the associated risks.
๐๐จ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค ๐จ๐ ๐ ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐๐-๐๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ (backed my mounds of good science found in past posts):
1. Indoors versus outdoors
2. How long you are exposed?
3. How many people are around you?
4. Forceful exhalation - think sneezing, coughing, and singing
For example, a low-risk activity is outdoor picnics or running/biking. The risks with picnics are increased if there lots of people around (think #3 above for crowding).
Another example is religious services or working out. The risks involved here involve being in an enclosed space and forceful exhalation of singing or breathing hard. (I have several previous posts on the data behind singing, working out indoors, and church.)
๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ค๐๐๐ฉ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ญ:
1. You can increase or decrease your risk for any activity by paying attention to the 4 main factors listed above.
2. Wearing a mask and physical distancing can cut your risks to a mere 3%. Y'all, that's the biggest protection we have!
3. The more we do now, the more likely we can keep businesses open, health systems running correctly (i.e., available beds for cancer patients, elective surgeries not being cancelled, etc), and family members protected.
4. You can still spread if you are asymptomatic or before you know you're sick. You can still get COVID-19 from someone who is asymptomatic or before they know they are sick.
5. There are caveats with each activity. For example, lots of dentists and doctor's offices are taking great precautions to lower the risk by requiring masks, allowing few patients in the building at once, etc. Some restaurants are doing a great job on outdoor seating and other precautions. So, take all of that into account as you use this list. Remember to look at the 4 factors for any activity listed!
Other countries have done this. We can too.
-Friendly neighbor epidemiologist
***I could have made this post super-duper long with scientific sources for the claims in this post. If you're interested in those sources, see past posts or ask in the comments and I'll try to answer as many as I can.***
SOURCE: COVID-19 Risk Index, created by Prof Ezekiel J. Emmanuel (University of Pennsylvania), Prof Saskia Popescu (University of Arizona), and Dr. James P. Phillips (GWU Emergency Medicine).
http://www.ezekielemanuel.com/writing/all-articles/2020/06/30/covid-19-activity-risk-levels
