11/04/2020
Some important words for these uncertain times.
Algunas palabras importantes durante estos tiempos inciertos
If you're not in a good place right now (understandable...2020 sucks!), just keep scrolling past this.
I get asked a lot about what I think the next few months hold...here are my honest predictions based on all the reading and learning I've done about COVID-19, vaccines, our public health response, and what the next 6-12 months holds.
✅ In the next 6 weeks, our surge persists as we enter the influenza season. Hospital capacity (remember, it's not JUST beds - it's supplies and staff that are all in short supply and burning out already) will be tenuous.
✅ Winter arrives and everyone is indoors more. Many will decide to celebrate thanksgiving without any masks, distancing, or precautions if ill or exposed and cases will persist or rise around the US (this happened in Europe which actually got cases way down and then opened back up and now is in an even worse place). COVID doesn't care that it's "just" extended family.
✅ Christmas and New Years will arrive and perhaps by then, the Thanksgiving toll will become apparent (remember, deaths lag infections by 3-6 weeks), and more decide to stay home. It will be a tough holiday for those that can't get together with loved ones but saying "Because I love you, we are going to stay apart this year" goes a long way (even if the recipient doesn't understand at this moment)
✅ February - most will know someone or several people that have been hospitalized or died from COVID (do you know anyone yet?) and realize the gravity of the situation and start to worry they or someone they love could actually be infected or die
✅ Early Spring - COVID vaccines will start to be available to health care workers and those at high risk. Many will refuse to get the vaccine.
✅ We will still be wearing masks at Kindergarten, High School, and College Graduation ceremonies for the class of 2021.
✅ Early Summer - COVID vaccine widely available to adults
✅ Later Summer - (hopefully) 🤞 COVID vaccine approved and available to school-aged children and younger kids as we enter the next respiratory virus season
✅ Thanksgiving 2021 - we see loved ones without masks and begin the return to "normal". COVID doesn't disappear but we have higher levels of community immunity from recovered cases and vaccines that we can tolerate it and have better therapeutics for those that are infected and at risk.
THIS SUCKS. It makes me sad, angry, and scared.
Why share this depressing news? It's important to understand where we are and where we aren't. I get you're fatigued so this hopefully helps you to set and stretch your expectations of what the next months hold.
Take time to grieve for all that we've lost in 2020. It is hard. It will get better. It will take time. We can do this.
With love,
Phil