Russell T. Warne, PhD - Psychologist, author, and educator

27/03/2026

A new paper from my colleague Tobias Wolfram (Bielefeld University) examines the ability to use different data from childhood to predict adult outcomes. Three predictors (a single essay processed by AI, 22 teacher assessment variables, and DNA-based polygenic scores) were used to predict IQ, chilhood/adolescent academic achievement, adult educational attainment, and adult non-cognitive traits.

LLMs were used to create predictor variables. Surprisingly, data from a single essay at age 11 (avg length = ~250 words) could predict up to 37-59% of variance in academic achievement (3rd image). When predicting IQ at age 11, the teacher's evaluation was the best single predictor (R2 = .62), but combining it with polygenic scores and the essay data, the explained variance rose to .70 (4th image). According to Wolfram, "The prediction of our best model approaches the test-retest reliability of benchmark intelligence tests" (p. 5).

This is an important step forward in using non-test data to predict IQ. While current LLMs do not surpass data based on a knowledgeable rate (e.g., a teacher), this paper points the way to using AI to understand people's psychological traits better.

Read the full paper (with no paywall):
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44271-025-00274-x

18/03/2026

One of the great mysteries in evolutionary psychology is how humans evolved to be so much smarter than other primates. A new article in "Evolution and Human Behavior" proposes a theory to answer this question.

The Coalitional Intelligence Hypothesis proposes that forming successful "coalitions" (groups of humans who may or may not be related) to solve problems selected for intelligence. This process required underlying abilities that evolved earlier--such as the ability to identify social signals, rooting out social cheaters, and developing a theory of mind in others--that combined to make coalitions possible. Once a coalition was possible, a human's intelligence could contribute to the group's functioning and survival--and other organisms rewarded smarter coalition members because they contributed more.

Read the full article with no paywall here:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2026.106839

16/03/2026

We have a new episode of the RIOT IQ podcast. This one is a doozy! Dr. Garett Jones, an economist at George Mason University, and I discuss how IQ influences group outcomes (businesses, nations, etc.). Among other things, we discuss:
➡Why Malaysia is the "anti-Argentina" 🇲🇾
➡How IQ matters more than the psychologists often realize
➡Immigration and IQ
➡What determines whether "Diversity is our strength" or not.
Catch it here:

How intelligence shapes the prosperity of nations and why immigration policy can have long-term economic consequences?The conversation with Dr. Garret Jones ...

06/03/2026

You may have heard of Ada Lovelace. She was the daughter of Lord Byron who is touted as the world's first computer programmer. Science historian Gavan Tredoux looks into the evidence and finds that, "Ada Lovelace was not a mathematician at all. Nor was she the world’s first programmer let alone computer scientist." In fact, her mathematical abilities were not impressive, and she fudged her numbers in her most famous publication.

Read more:

The Ada Lovelace Fable

05/03/2026

In January, I shared an article from "The New Yorker" about fraudulent research that had led to guidelines against giving codeine breastfeeding women. Now, a journal that published the original case study admits that the case study is fictional--something it had never disclosed to its readers before. In fact, it's been publishing fake case studies for 25 years!

Read more from Retraction Watch:

A Canadian journal has issued corrections on 138 case reports it published over the last 25 years to add a disclaimer: The cases described are fictional. Paediatrics & Child Health, the journal…

03/03/2026

"No statistical analysis is going to magically transform bad data into good data."

Yesterday, I reviewed a manuscript for a scientific journal and wrote that comment to the authors. They had used a flawed procedure to collect their data--resulting in flawed data. Unfortunately, the quality of a study can never exceed the quality of the underlying data. Statistical or rhetorical wizardry does not change that.

It pained me, but I had to recommend that the manuscript be rejected. 😢

27/02/2026

There's a new science fraudster on Retraction Watch's list scientists with the most retracted articles, and he's literally Hi**er.

A chemist named Hi**er Louis (who also goes by Louis Hi**er Muzong) is a Nigerian chemist who has had 35 articles retracted in the past 24 months. The reasons for retraction range from impossible results to manipulated peer review to citation manipulation.

Read more:

A screenshot of Louis’ LinkedIn profile before we reached out to him. Racking up 35 retractions in just 24 months, chemist Hi**er Louis has scored a place on our leaderboard.  The papers…

24/02/2026

AI is changing education in profound ways, and the adults aren't ready. An example of this was reported in The Free Press this month. The article discusses the AMC 12, a math competition that successful students can use to enter the International Math Olympiad. Thanks to AI, the number of perfect scores has exploded. "Sadly, the score distribution suggests that among the top scorers this year, there are more cheaters than honest people," one person said.

Read more:

Only a handful of top students got perfect scores on the AMC 12. Then AI came along, writes Deepa Javeri.

23/02/2026

After I suggested it, Grokipedia wrote a new article on Stephen Breuning, a 1980s fraudster who fabricated research on IQ and pharmacological interventions. Over the past few years, I've gotten some of his fake studies retracted.

Read the article here:

Stephen E. Breuning is an American psychologist who specialized in behavioral interventions for children with developmental disabilities and hyperactivity but became notorious for fabricating research data in the 1980s to support claims of the superiority of behavioral treatments over pharmacologica...

21/02/2026

We recorded two more episodes this week of the RIOT IQ test podcast on IQ and Human Intelligence. You won't want to miss these great guests and fascinating conversations.

13/02/2026

Here's some heartening news: 77% of Americans say that "doing your own research" about a topic includes looking at scientific studies, according to a new poll from Pew.

This isn't the percentage who say they have done that themselves, but it shows that a lot of people are open to using scientific literature to learn about what they see or read in the media. (If you follow this page, you're probably one of them!)

Read the full report:
https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2026/02/11/what-does-it-mean-to-do-your-own-research-and-how-often-do-americans-do-it/

12/02/2026

This opinion piece in the Washington Post discusses the increase in autism diagnoses. Basically, the increase is caused entirely by a broadening definition of the diagnostic label. The kid that 30 years ago was an eccentric loner obsessed with trains is now diagnosed--even if he's not really impaired.

"Between 2000 and 2016, there was a 464 percent increase in diagnoses among children with no significant functional impairment whatsoever . . . during the same time period, there was a 20 percent decrease in the prevalence of moderate or severe autism . . ."

Read more:

Most new cases reflect mild or no significant impairment. Moderate and severe cases have declined.