09/12/2025
***** Back to Basics: Virginia’s housing ladder *****
How Virginia’s housing shortages trap households at every income level.
The Brits call it the “housing ladder“—a term that captures how households climb from renting to buying to trading up over their lifetimes. Here in the US, we more often talk about the “housing spectrum” or “housing continuum,” focusing on what different income levels can afford. Either way, the concept is the same: households transition between housing types as their needs and resources change.
This version of the “housing spectrum” focuses on the types of affordable housing we currently provide to households with below-average incomes.
Think of it like musical chairs. When life circumstances shift, households find new appropriate homes, and their movement creates opportunities for others. But increasingly, when the music stops, too many Virginians find themselves without a place to sit.
How the game should work
In a healthy housing market, households move predictably through different stages. Young adults start as renters, building savings and credit. They purchase starter homes—typically smaller condos or modest houses. As careers advance and families grow, many trade up to larger homes. Later, empty nesters downsize or transition to senior living communities.
Each move frees up housing for someone else, creating “housing churn.” When a retired couple downsizes, a growing family can move into their home. Their old townhouse becomes available for first-time buyers, who vacate a rental unit. This turnover keeps markets fluid.
When one or more rungs on the “housing ladder” go missing, making your next move in any direction becomes a major challenge.
When chairs go missing
But what happens when there aren’t enough chairs at any level? The entire system grinds to a halt.
Virginia faces shortages across multiple housing types. New apartments haven’t kept pace with job growth. Starter homes under $300,000 have become scarce. Even downsizing options for seniors are limited. Nationwide, turnover rates fell to historic lows before the end of last year.
When any rung breaks, effects cascade both directions. Seniors who can’t find suitable one-level homes stay put in houses with many more rooms than they might need. Families who would buy those homes remain cramped in smaller spaces. First-time buyers keep renting, tightening vacancy rates further.
The new rules of the game
Today’s housing ladder barely resembles previous generations. First-time buyers purchase homes at older ages, if at all. Many skip starter homes entirely, saving longer to afford larger homes in one leap.
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According to the National Association of REALTORS, the median age of a first-time buyer in 2024 was 38. Prior to 2022, that age had never risen above 33.
Others move backward—adult children returning home, divorced individuals shifting from owning to renting, seniors selling homes to afford assisted living. These reverse moves add pressure to already constrained lower rungs.
Single-person households have also changed the game. More Virginians live alone than ever, requiring additional units even as household sizes shrink. Meanwhile, multi-generational living is resurging as families combine under one roof.
Keeping the music on
The musical chairs analogy reveals an uncomfortable truth: individual households can strategize all they want, but systemic shortages mean someone will always be left standing.
Some Virginia communities are experimenting with solutions. Accessory dwelling units keep seniors in their neighborhoods. Missing middle housing—duplexes, townhomes, small apartments—provides transitions between apartments and single-family homes. Arlington, Richmond, and other localities are making attempts to diversify housing types with significant zoning reforms.
The final round
The housing ladder metaphor implies a one-way climb, but reality is messier. People move sideways, backwards, and sometimes off the ladder entirely. But the core insight remains: housing markets are interconnected systems where movement at one level affects all others.
Until Virginia adds enough homes at every level—rental and owned, small and large, affordable and market-rate—the music will keep stopping with too many households left standing.
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