See the Data, San Diego, CA (2025)

12/15/2022

I know a lot of people have started looking more at wastewater than case rates, so here's the latest data from SD County's wastewater.

You can find the county's weekly report here:https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/SDC_Respiratory_Virus_Surveillance_Report.pdf

11/06/2022

Adam's 11/5 Coronavirus data update:

TL;DR: Cases and infection levels have been relatively stable, but new variant growth is concerning and bivalent boosters have had mixed data, but a bit better than early response data.

- Cases overall are flat-ish
- Where new variants have taken hold, cases and hospitalizations have not yet surged - for instance France now has over 50% as BQ.1.1 and yet cases and hospitalizations are declining.
- See first 2 additional graphs (3rd and 4th graphs overall) for wastewater data for the San Diego and the U.S. - both seem relatively flat to declining, with San Diego at roughly levels of March and a year ago.
- Bivalent vaccine antibody data initially looked like it was underwhelming and only a bit more than the original vaccine, however that was using pseudoviruses and studies using live viruses have now come out and it looks like anitbodies vs. BA.5 and in some cases BQ.1.1 are 3-4x higher. See 5th image for a summary.
- Variant data is concerning (see 6th graph) - BQ.1.1 is 19% of cases and expected to be the majority in 2 weeks. However, it is not clear if it will cause a surge in cases and data from France mentioned above gives cause for some optimism.

1) Israel 7-day new cases are increasing at around 10-15% per week, now at a case rate of a little less than 10.
2) Italy 7-day new cases have been bouncing around but are a lot lower than they were a few weeks ago, now at a case rate of around 26.
3) UK 7-day new cases have been decreasing around 25% per week, now at a case rate of around 7.
4) South Africa 7-day new cases are steady at around a 0.5 case rate.
5) The U.S. 7-day new cases have been slightly increasing and are at a case rate of 12.
6) CA 7-day new cases have been relatively flat at a case rate of 8.
7) San Diego new cases have been relatively flat at a case rate of 8.
8 ) LA 7-day new cases have had some sporadic data collection so should be ignored here.
9) SF Bay Area 7-day new cases have had some sporadic data collection so should be ignored here.

10/26/2022

The COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by Facility dataset that I have been using to show data from Rady Children's Hospital in San Diego is updated every Monday, and until this week, there has always been a 10 day lag. So when I downloaded the data from 10/24/2022, I expected to see data through 10/14/2022.

However, the latest update includes data through 10/21/2022. In the description of the dataset, they added this:

"On October 24, 2022, the data includes more analytical calculations in efforts to provide a cleaner dataset. For a raw version of this dataset, please follow this link: https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/uqq2-txqb"

I'm not sure what this means exactly, but I'm choosing to continue to use this dataset rather than the raw version because it has more recent data, which seems relevant when looking at the hospital census chart which shows 82% of inpatient beds are in use, the highest level since the dataset began tracking data in March 2020.

These are by and large NOT kids with COVID-19, but it is relevant to anyone whose child may need hospital care due to illness or injury. In San Diego County, most hospitals will send pediatric patients to Rady Children's because they have pediatric specialists and are better equipped or pediatric care. As a parent myself, I have been directed to Rady's for after hour ER care even when our local urgent care is still open.

You will notice that with only a 3 day lag instead of 10, some data for the week of October 21 seems incomplete, specifically the data on ER visits.

All of the interactive dashboards seen here can be accessed through https://cv19.shulok.com/rady-childrens-hospital/

10/25/2022

Adam's 10/24 Coronavirus data update:

TL;DR: Cases and infection levels looks pretty decent, but new variant growth is concerning and bivalent boosters probably can't be fully relied on.

- Cases overall are flat to gradually declining
- Europe in particular seems to have peaked, with the time from start of latest surge to peak being about 4-5 weeks - though note this was a surge driven by behavior/immunity waning/etc. and not (yet) new variants
- See first 2 additional graphs (3rd and 4th graphs overall) for wastewater data for the U.S. and San Diego - U.S. overall flat, San Diego declining and at roughly levels of March and a year ago.
- Variant data is concerning (see 5th graph) - BQ.1.1 (7% overall) is doubling each week and expected to be dominant by mid-Nov. BQ.1.1 and close cousin BQ.1 at 28% of NY/NJ cases. Also starting to show up in San Diego (see 6th graph)
- SD hospitalizations looking low and slightly declining (see 7th graph) - likely a function of vaccines working better vs. severe disease.
- First data came out on bivalent vaccines (8th graph) - seems to provide slightly better protection than regular booster vs. BA.5 but not by much. However data is early and sparse. 3-4 doses + BA.4/5 infection appears to produce very robust response.

1) Israel 7-day new cases have started increasing, around 10-15% per week.
2) Italy 7-day new cases increases have turned the corner and are decreasing at 10-15% per week.
3) UK 7-day new cases have started decreasing.
4) South Africa 7-day new cases are steady at around a 0.5 case rate.
5) The U.S. 7-day new cases decreasing slightly at a case rate of 11.
6) CA 7-day new cases decreasing around 15-20% per week, now at a case rate of 7.
7) San Diego new cases decreasing around 15% per week, now at a case rate of 7.
8 ) LA 7-day new cases decreasing around 25% per week, now at a case rate of 7.
9) SF Bay Area 7-day new cases decreasing around 5-10% per week, now at a case rate of 8.

10/21/2022

I'm hearing about a lot of flu cases in San Diego County, early in the flu season, possibly fueled by homecoming events this month. I created a new dashboard to chart new flu admissions (which saw a big jump the last week for which we have data) and 7 day average hospitalizations (currently, there are only 1-3 flu inpatients on average).

This data is only through October 7th, so will likely increase once we have data for the week following the post-Homecoming outbreaks at 2 local high schools. Reports on the outbreaks of respiratory illness largely attributed them to influenza.

Interactive dashboard for Influenza hospitalizations: https://cv19.shulok.com/influenza-hospitalizations-at-rady-childrens-hospital/

Interactive dashboard for hospital beds for all causes:
https://cv19.shulok.com/hospital-census-for-rady-childrens-hospital/

10/21/2022

After hearing anecdotally that wait times at Rady Children's hospital were 8-12 hours, and reading an email from the medical group affiliated with Rady apologizing for delays in accommodating requests for visits due to "historic levels of community illness", I decided to pull the latest data from Rady, and also create a dashboard or Influenza (which will be a separate post).

This data is only through October 7, which is prior to the huge outbreaks reported in 2 local high schools last week following Homecoming weekend events. Those outbreaks were likely due to influenza, although it sounds like some students tested positive for COVID-19.

But for the data through October 7, we see that pediatric visits to the ER are steadily climbing, including visits related to COVID-19.

Interactive dashboard available here: https://cv19.shulok.com/pediatric-emergency-department-visits/

10/15/2022

Adam's 10/14 Coronavirus data update:

TL;DR: For now at least, cases seem to be flat to slowly decreasing, but new developments with several new variants could change that, perhaps within 3 weeks or so.

See below for some additional graphs on wastewater levels - they also show flat-ish levels overall, however higher levels and increases in the U.S. Northeast, which may be related to the higher levels of new variants there (see below).

On the variant picture, there were A BUNCH of updates from the CDC site and see graphs below. Basically, there are 6 variants being watched most closely, and BQ.1.1/BQ.1 are probably the ones to keep the closest eye on and most likely to have an impact the soonest. As a summary of each:
- BQ.1.1 (subvariant of BA.5) has been flagged by several experts as concerning in terms of immune escape and otherwise. The good news at least is that it is a subvariant of BA.5 and so the new bivalent vaccines should hopefully provide at least some protection. It is at around 5% of cases in the U.S./CA but as high as 8% in the Northeast and doubling or even more each week. At the current pace it will be the dominant variant in the U.S. in 3 weeks (Nov 5), though increases may slow down as its share increases so may be more like mid-Nov.
- BQ.1 is closely related to BQ.1, also around 5% but at 12% in the Northeast, and growing around 70-80% per week. On track to be dominant week of Nov 12, in 4 weeks, but may be competing closely with BQ.1.1 and rate of increase may slow down pushing it later.
- BA.4.6 was previously tracked closely and was increasing around 8% per week, and while it is now around 12% of cases, it is not really growing anymore, being outcompeted by BQ.1 , BQ.1.1 and perhaps others.
- BA.2.75.2 was sort of tracked but now broken out separately. It is around 1.4% and growing at 40% per week - on track to be over 50% by mid-Dec but may well get outcompeted by BQ.1/BQ.1.1
- BF.7 (subvariant of BA.5) was also tracked and is at 5% and growing at 25% per week and also on track to be at over 50% by mid-Dec, but also likely to be out-competed.
- XBB (subvariant of BA.2) has been identified elsewhere as concerning, but is not being tracked and is presumably not at significant levels, at least not yet, in the U.S.

On the variant side, BA.4.6 still increasing slowly at 7% per week and now at a 13.6% share. BA.2.75 has slowed a lot and is still at just 1.8% share. BF.7 (subvariant of BA.5) is increasing a fair amount at 40% per week though is still at a 4.6% share.
Bivalent vaccine booster for ages 5-11 expected to be approved some time in the next week.

1) Israel 7-day new cases are decreasing 10-15% per week.
2) Italy 7-day new cases increases are slowing down, now increasing at 10-15% per week.
3) UK 7-day new cases may be plateauing.
4) South Africa 7-day new cases are steady at around a 0.5 case rate.
5) The U.S. 7-day new cases have now flattened out at a case rate of around 12.
6) CA 7-day new cases continue to decrease around 10% per week, now at a case rate of around 10.
7) San Diego new cases decreased again, down 15-20% from last week and now at a case rate of around 8.
8 ) LA 7-day new cases are decreasing at around 10% per week, now at a case rate of around 11.
9) SF Bay Area 7-day new cases are decreasing at around 10% per week, now at a case rate of around 8.

10/12/2022

Adam's 10/11 Coronavirus data update:

*Sorry for the delay from the last update. Also, not that due to most places having switched to weekly reporting, this will likely be updated on a weekly basis going forward, probably on Fridays.*

TL;DR: Italy and some other place in Europe showing significantly increasing cases, but other places like Israel showing significant decreases. Most places in U.S. are decreasing very slowly. New variants have still not taken hold but are increasing and may impact the situation unfavorably in several weeks.

On the variant side, BA.4.6 still increasing slowly at 7% per week and now at a 13.6% share. BA.2.75 has slowed a lot and is still at just 1.8% share. BF.7 (subvariant of BA.5) is increasing a fair amount at 40% per week though is still at a 4.6% share.

Bivalent vaccine booster for ages 5-11 expected to be approved some time in the next week.

1) Israel 7-day new cases are down 40% over the last 2 weeks, but reporting has been weird so not clear how much of that is "real".
2) Italy 7-day new cases have been continuing to increase and are at relatively high levels of a case rate of 69, however at least the rate of increase has been slowing, most recently at 20% per week, down from 50% per week earlier. It appears that it is not related to a new variant but rather behavior/weather/waning immunity/other but it is not fully clear.
3) UK 7-day new cases have been increasing at 25% per week, now at a case rate of 14.
4) South Africa 7-day new cases are steady at around a 0.5 case rate.
5) The U.S. 7-day new cases have been decreasing at around 10-15% per week, now at a case rate of around 12.
6) CA 7-day new cases finally seem to have somewhat reliable reporting and are now decreasing at around 5-10% per week and at a case rate of 11.
7) San Diego new cases are decreasing at around 5% per week and are now at a case rate of around 10.
8 ) LA 7-day new cases are decreasing at around 10% per week, now at a case rate of around 12.
9) SF Bay Area 7-day new cases are decreasing at around 20% per week, now at a case rate of 9.

10/06/2022

Outbreak chart from the county's latest Covid Watch report, which will be available from the website later today here: https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html

Large increase in outbreaks in TK-12 schools. For the week of 9/24, there were more outbreaks in TK-12 schools than for all types of outbreaks the week prior.

And yet our schools are no longer reporting cases on campus or notifying students of possible exposure.

10/03/2022

It's been a few weeks since I was able to update these dashboards, but I have now updated them with data from Rady Children's Hospital through September 23rd.

ER visits related to COVID-19 are declining, but ER visits in general have gone up, and beds in use, including ICU beds, have risen. But it doesn't seem to be driven by COVID-19.

You can find interactive versions of these charts on here: https://cv19.shulok.com/rady-childrens-hospital/

10/01/2022

Adam's 9/30 Coronavirus data update:

*NOTE: CA case data reporting seems to have returned to at least a somewhat more regular schedule*

TL;DR: Italy and some other place in Europe showing significantly increasing cases. U.S. and maybe places within seem to be flat to slightly declining. New variants are popping up but unclear to what extent they will take hold.

On the variant side, BA.4.6 has slowed its increase a bit, to 8% per week and now at a 12.8% share. BA.2.75 has slowed a lot and is still at just 1.4% share. BF.7 (subvariant of BA.5) is increasing a fair amount at 40% per week though is still at a 3.4% share.

1) Israel 7-day new cases slightly increased recently, but have been bouncing around.
2) Italy 7-day new cases have been increasing significantly, now at over 50% per week and at a case rate of 48.
3) UK 7-day new cases have been increasing at 35% per week, now at a case rate of 11.
4) South Africa 7-day new cases are steady at or below a 0.4 case rate.
5) The U.S. 7-day new cases have been decreasing at around 15% per week, now at a case rate of around 14.
6) CA 7-day new cases finally seem to have somewhat reliable reporting and are now at a case rate of 12.
7) San Diego new cases are decreasing at around 10% per week and are now at a case rate of just a bit above 10.
8 ) LA 7-day new cases finally seem to have somewhat reliable reporting and are now at a case rate of 13.
9) SF Bay Area 7-day new cases finally seem to have somewhat reliable reporting and are now at a case rate of 12,

09/28/2022

Adam's 9/27 Coronavirus data update:

*NOTE: CA case data has been reported only erratically and is not reliable at the moment and San Diego has switched to just once/week reporting (on Thursdays) plus is more lagged*

TL;DR: Places seem overall flat, with some increasing a bit and some decreasing a bit.

Pfizer and Moderna have both asked for FDA authorization for their bivalent boosters for younger kids (Pfizer for 5-11 and Moderna for 6-17). Approval expected within a couple of weeks or so.

1) Israel 7-day new cases are flat-to-declining.
2) Italy 7-day new cases have been increasing more, now at 30-35% per week and at a case rate of 38.
3) UK 7-day new cases have been increasing around 15% per week, now at a case rate of 8.
4) South Africa 7-day new cases are steady at or below a 0.4 case rate.
5) The U.S. 7-day new cases have been flat, now at a case rate of around 16.
6) CA 7-day new cases don't have reliable reporting at the moment.
7) San Diego new cases weren't updated.
8 ) LA 7-day new cases don't have reliable reporting at the moment.
9) SF Bay Area 7-day new cases don't have reliable reporting at the moment.

See the Data

12/15/2022

11/06/2022

10/26/2022

10/25/2022

10/21/2022

10/21/2022

10/15/2022

10/12/2022

10/06/2022

10/03/2022

10/01/2022

09/28/2022

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