03/19/2020
Since our last post on March 3, things have changed dramatically....
1) What did we know then?
- Covid-19 is a coronavirus. Traditionally, coronaviruses are nothing more than a "cold" virus. Occasionally, mutant strains emerge, such as MERS, SARS and now, Covid-19.
- the number of those infected were low
- those more severely affected, just like the flu, were the elderly (over 65) and those who had compromised immunity. And yes, sometimes people not in those categories were affected, as well. But, the vast majority did fit in that category
- greater than 95% of those affected recovered
- good hygiene practices were the best defense
2) What do we know now?
- this virus can and has mutated faster than most other viruses
- this virus can be more severe than a standard flu or cold virus
- unlike other common viruses, in which the more common pulmonary (lung) symptoms may be pneumonia, Covid-19 can cause pulmonary fibrosis (scarring). This scarring does not allow the lung to function properly and often these are the patients who require the help of a ventilator.
- the virus is about twice as contagious than the flu virus
- As of 3/17/2020, per the CDC website, there were a total of 7038 cases reported in the US with 97 deaths (1.4%). These numbers are updated every weekday by noon reflecting the numbers reported by 4pm the day before.
3) What is being done?
- research into medications and vaccines to treat and prevent disease is being actively pursued
- testing is being done, mainly on people with symptoms and close contacts of those who test positive for the virus. Although it would be nice to test EVERYONE, we only have a finite number of test kits and reagent available. That is why we do not test everyone with mild symptoms. We need these test kits for those who are more severely affected by the virus. Things are being done to improve the number of test kits available, however.
EXPECT THE NUMBER OF CASES TO INCREASE EXPONENTIALLY!!! Obviously, the more we test, the more positives we will find. That should not be a cause for panic. Remember, there are reports that greater than 80-90% of people who contract this virus have either mild or NO SYMPTOMS. The more number of positive cases (or the denominator) equals a lower rate of severe cases/death rates. Let me explain. If the number of severe cases and deaths (the numerator) slows down due to social distancing and the denominator increases, the percentage of "bad" cases actually goes down. Even one death or bad outcome from this virus was too many, but hopefully, we can keep these numbers down as low as possible.
- social distancing...this truly is very important. Boring, but extremely important. As everyone has heard, by containing the virus for a period of time, it will lessen the burden on the medical centers to treat those severely affected or those with fibrosis. And don't forget, just because Covid-19 is around us, cancer and heart attacks have not taken a break. These people sometimes need ventilators too. By you all staying home, you reduce the chances of spreading the virus quicker than the medical community has the means to treat patients. You truly are staying home to save other people's lives.
Finally, DO NOT just walk in to your physician's office or emergency room. Call ahead. That way, your symptoms can be assessed and precautions can be taken so you do not spread whatever you have to others who are in the office or ER at that same time. Also, we can assess whether you or your child meets the requirements for being tested for Covid-19. At this time, physicians' offices and most ERs are not able to test for the virus. These tests are done at special "off-site" locations, again, to separate and limit exposure.
Main thing to take away...do not panic! Be concerned. Be diligent. Be optimistic. We will get through this. Just like we got through all the previous outbreaks (i.e. SARS, MERS swine flu and Ebola viruses). Things will get back to normal.
Stay healthy everyone!!!