01/15/2022
The Omicron variant picked the perfect time to appear and will lead to widespread natural immunity. (If only it would have been the first variant to come out of Wuhan...)
[Citations listed at the end of the article.}
The U.S., indeed, the world, has been suffering through different strains of the Coronavirus, beginning with the Wuhan strain December 31st, 2019, then alpha, beta, gamma, delta and now the omicron strain (1). In the U.S., up to the 10th of January, a total of over 62 million cases and over 840 thousand deaths have occurred (2). Omicron is so contagious that in one day there were over 1.35 million new cases in the U.S. (3). Though I hate the thought of people getting sick, considering the proportion of our population who are resistant to taking any vaccine, I think this might be a good thing. Let me explain.
We know that the delta strain is more than twice as contagious as the alpha strain, which is twice as contagious as the initial Wuhan strain (4). The delta strain causes a more serious infection and has a much higher hospitalization rate and death rate than previous variants (5,6,8). Unfortunately, the increase in mortality and serious illness predominantly hit the unvaccinated. Unvaccinated are 10 to 14 times more likely to be hospitalized and in the 65+ age group are 15 times more likely to die (7). The reasons people refuse vaccines are beyond this paper but can be read in the following references (9,10).
What we all know is that the majority of deaths occur in the unvaccinated and, in spite of this, the unvaccinated are unlikely to change their minds and receive vaccination. So, what are we to do? Omicron has propitiously come along and may well save the day for the majority of us. Here’s why:
Omicron is highly contagious -- two to three times more contagious than the delta variant (11). It is less susceptible to the effects of vaccination, and breakthrough infections are very common (12). It is less severe than delta and other variants (13). Deaths have been reduced by around 80% and ICU admissions have been reduced by similar numbers. Hospital stays have been reduced by 50% (13). It also has a very fast doubling time of between two to three days. This means that if one person gets Omicron, within two months this may have spread to an additional 1,000,000 million individuals (20).
This virus, as in all viruses, needs an animal host to survive. If you have ten people on an isolated island in the middle of the Pacific, once the virus spreads to all inhabitants of that island, the virus dies off and the survivors have natural immunity. If there is a neighboring island with inhabitants with no natural immunity, and if they are visited by someone with the virus, they will get the disease; whereas if the immune folks are visited by someone with the virus there may be an occasional breakthrough infection but it will be less severe and less likely to spread.
This brings me to the herd immunity question. I last reported that we need somewhere between 80% and 90% to have adequate herd immunity. Immunity can occur with vaccination or as a result of a natural infection. Waiting for a natural infection to cause immunity is extremely risky and dangerous, considering we have lost 840,000 people, due to earlier variants of this virus. However, if you have a group of individuals who are refusing vaccination, then by default this group will need to rely on natural immunity for us to reach herd immunity levels. There is a risk to this approach, but if this group of individuals is willing to accept it, then so be it.
Currently about 74% of our population has been vaccinated (15). This equates to around 250 million folks vaccinated. Another 42 million have had the virus and survived (16). Totaling these two numbers yields around 292 million either vaccinated or with some natural immunity, which is around 88% of our total population of around 330 million. A few days ago, our country administered over 895 thousand doses of vaccine (17). [Go to reference 17 to see our historical administration rate.]
I tried to attach two graphs from South Africa because I like the data format, but FB will not allow them to be posted. The point I would have liked to make with them is that Omicron appears to be rapidly tapering off in South Africa (as it is or shortly will be in the U.S.) and, comparatively, it has had a dramatically lower death rate, which is also quickly tapering off.
Extrapolating data from South Africa, in conjunction with all of the above information, leads me to believe that we are rapidly hitting the herd immunity point and that coronavirus cases will dramatically decline. I think that within 30 days or so, a lot of restrictions to movement and other restrictions will be able to be cut back so that we can get back to enjoying life. Hospital admissions, as well as deaths, will also most likely dramatically diminish. Eventually, we may get to an annual Coronavirus death rate similar to the flu of around 50,000 individuals, with the avilability of an annual Coronavirus vaccine injection.
Speaking of vaccines, Pfizer is coming up with an anti-Omicron vaccine by March, and this should also help. This vaccine will also provide us cross-coverage against some other variants (18).
Coronaviruses are here to stay. For about 60 years at least 4 Coronaviruses have been circulating in the U.S., causing common cold symptoms (21). All viruses mutate from varous parts of the world the Coronaviruses have mutated and caused Sars-COV-1, Sars-Cov-2 and MERS. For examle the Wuhan strain has mutated over 12,700 times! (19). Five of these mutations are called “variants of concern,” due to having increased virulence, contagiousness, or both.
It is only a question of time until the next mutation. However, the world has learned from our current pandemic a list of best practices that we should be able to implement a lot more quickly next time.
Take care and stay safe.
1. https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/
2. https://www.google.com/search?q=us+covid+cases&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS899US899&oq=us+covid&aqs=chrome.0.0i131i433i512l4j69i60l3j69i65.1879j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
3. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-reports-least-11-mln-covid-cases-day-shattering-global-record-2022-01-11/
4. https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/5-things-to-know-delta-variant-covid
5. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html #:~:text=%E2%80%A2%20Some%20data%20suggest%20the,the%20original%20virus%20strains.
6.https://www.cmaj.ca/content/cmaj/early/2021/10/04/cmaj.211248.full.pdf
7.https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf
8. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00685-X/fulltext
9. https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/09/05/by-the-numbers-whos-refusing-covid-vaccinations-and-why/?sh=548e5f5552ea
10. https://www.vox.com/2021/6/2/22463223/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-reasons-why
11. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1
12. https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data
13. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-50-severity-omicron/
14. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122101256X
15. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
16. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
17. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-19-vaccination-doses?country=~USA
18. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/10/covid-vaccine-pfizer-ceo-says-omicron-vaccine-will-be-ready-in-march.html
19. https://srhd.org/news/2021/coronavirus-mutations-and-variants-what-does-it-mean
20. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kimberleespeakman/2021/12/21/omicron-variant-has-doubling-time-of-about-2-to-3-days-fauci-says/?sh=356645004fbd
21.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2595130/pdf/yjbm00155-0028.pdf