Trafalgar Partners LLC

Trafalgar Partners LLC Contact information, map and directions, contact form, opening hours, services, ratings, photos, videos and announcements from Trafalgar Partners LLC, Medical and health, Stockton, CA.

Have a nice day
05/30/2022

Have a nice day

02/24/2021

Never underestimate the power of Options in a portfolio. Last Summer we began using Call options with our main derivative investments and saw our returns shoot up. Going back to our original positions in 2016, the fund is up 1,274%.

Modeling the investment using options took about a year, especially the entry points. It has certainly worked out...

11/25/2020

So the Dow today closed above 30,000 for the first time ever. What does that mean?

$1,000 invested 30 years ago would now be worth $10,000. Sounds pretty good. The same amount invested in the Nasdaq 100 30 years ago would now be worth $52,000. Sounds even better. And finally, the same amount invested in the derivatives that we use, had it been available 30 years ago, would be worth $191 million. Its all about compounded returns at 8%, 14%, and 50%, respectively.

11/18/2020

While we know what the human costs of the virus are well known, for investors it has been a mixed bag. It has depended on sector selection.

Investors in the Dow are up about 3% year to date while Nasdaq 100 investors are up 37% as demand for technology to weather the crisis has skyrocketed. We are up just over 70%.

A fair question to ask is whether some large pull back is once again in the offing. Our sense is the answer is No. Free cash flow and total asset growth have averaged about 24% among the companies we invest in so the base has increased substantially. We have been in a consolidation period since early September and another break out to new highs normally won't occur until the end of December has the market digests the gains that we have had.

11/09/2020

At least at the start of trading Monday morning, the Nasdaq 100 looks to hit a new all time high on the current election results. What happens if by chance the courts found enough malfeasance to overturn the result. Wouldn't that be interesting...

11/07/2020

So as both news of the pandemic and the election played out, beginning in early April, we began aggressively buying and leveraging our technology investments. Every time we had a 10% pull back we added to our positions and with the recent pull back we did the same. Fully leveraged out at almost 4 to 1 investments to equities, we bet the House.

And it worked. Buying during market panics, even modest ones, has resulted in Trafalgar being up 202% year to date with almost two months left in the year.

We figured that demand for technology would ratchet up each time Corona Virus cases counts rose and whether rightly or wrongly bet that conditions would worsen. They have. To a fair degree, this period reminds us of the Financial Crisis in 2007-2009 where we sold short the market, profiting on the banks failing as many did. We didn't gain many friends during that period, but we made a tremendous amount of money. The same goes for today.

07/16/2020

So the first of our companies, Netflix reported Q2 numbers this afternoon.

As you would expect due to the pandemic and everyone staying home, the numbers were off the charts. In particular, free cash flow went from ($544) million in Q2 2019 to $1.041 billion. Revenue growth was 24.9% and the operating margin was 22%.

Year to date Netflix is one of our strongest performers, up 66% so far.

Steady as she goes.

06/19/2020

Over the past 20 years, since the dotcom bubble implosion in 2000, income disparity has grown dramatically, with the Top 1% of the country holding a greater share of the wealth. Much has been talked about to try and sort the matter out. Since the Financial Crisis with its initial spike in unemployment, employment opportunities had improved and for people of color we saw as of February the lowest unemployment ever for Blacks, Hispanics and Latinos.

The effect of the Greatest Policy Error Ever, the forced shut down of the country, has reversed those gains in their entirety. Unemployment, defined as not only those who have lost their job and are seeking employment, but those who have lost their job and have stopped looking (and there is a statistical difference in measurement and reporting) is close to 21.6%.

The country is in a Depression, caused by and now attempting to be mitigated by the government. Particular parts of the equity market, those firms that are benefiting by the virus are skyrocketing in value which is great if you run a hedge fund.

But the disaster for those at the bottom of the economic pyramid is just getting started. The class warfare has just begun and those that supported the Shutdown, this lays at your feet.

06/18/2020

From an investment perspective, and to an even greater extent the general business community, that a bifurcation, or split, is rapidly growing between businesses that will thrive as a result of the current virus, and those that will fail.

The top technology companies including the usual suspects of Apple, et al, and mid tier firms like Adobe and Nvidia, continue to take market share as demands for their products and services sky rocket. Since the March low, we are up almost 70%.

Sadly though, the general market for stocks continue to languish as the market sorts out the remaining companies. To a fair degree retailers are getting annihilated as are restaurant stocks. Cruise lines, airlines, and hotel/travel businesses continue to see volumes 60-80% lower then the February peak.

The question now is how long can they survive and can they continue to tap the equity and bond markets. As of a month ago that was still possible, but even with government intervention rates for noninvestment grade credit are rising.

This morning's weekly jobless claims show a slight improvement but we are still seeing weekly claims of about 20 million.

Dark times remain. The Federal Reserve and US Treasury are all in and that is supporting liquidity though we are reaching $8 trillion in government borrowing.

Be careful out there.

05/13/2020

Markets climb a wall of worry and there is no shortage of that right now. We expect new highs in the Nasdaq 100 in the near term, freaking out the market pundits.

03/19/2020

If the virus in Wuhan has run its course and the country is back to normal in China, why do the markets there continue to sell off. And we should be half way home to this being resolved if we followed a similar path, heck even add a month. Markets discount news 9-12 months out normally. So what are our markets telling us?

03/19/2020

The main driver of the 2008-09 Financial crisis was the reality that the commercial banks and brokers had net negative equity, a result that the property held as collateral for mortgages was worth less then the loans themselves. We, and other financial firms, believed that the banks that had got themselves in trouble should be allowed to fail rather then be bailed out.

Sadly, that didn't happen as both the Federal Reserve and US Treasury dumped trillions of dollars into a bail out that temporarily papered over the problems. The idea was that if you could reflate asset prices (bonds and stocks) you could fix the problem. And they did reflate prices with huge Bull markets in both, encouraging companies to leverage up to expand and grow the economy away from the Depression.

But the Corona Virus has derailed this approach and our sense is that the bail outs this time won't work. For the market, a retest of the 2008-09 lows are in order, basically 66% below the current levels. As of tonight the Dow is just under 20,000, the low back in 2009 was 6469.

Address

Stockton, CA
95207

Opening Hours

Monday 9am - 5pm
Tuesday 9am - 5pm
Wednesday 9am - 5pm
Thursday 9am - 5pm
Friday 9am - 5pm
Saturday 8am - 6pm
Sunday 8am - 6pm

Telephone

+12096392756

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