Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

05/08/2026

May 12, 10 AM EST — Join CEPA at the Strategic Ark conference, hosted by PISM, where CEPA President & CEO Alina Polyakova will speak on the growing transatlantic rift and Europe's strategic alienation.

The conversation will examine the speed and scale at which the US-Europe relationship has deteriorated, from Greenland and tariffs to the lack of coordination on Ukraine and Gaza, and the resulting push for European industrial self-sufficiency.

Dr. Polyakova will be joined by François Heisbourg, Anthony Kim, and Ignacy Niemczycki, moderated by PISM's Marcin Terlikowski.

Watch the livestream at the link in the comment below.

05/07/2026

In the first four months of 2026 alone, Romania has recorded seven Russian drone airspace violations, the discovery of munition fragments 11 times, and 18 air policing scrambles. That single third of the year already accounts for more than a quarter of all such incidents since 2022.

Air incursions are a deliberate tactic in Russia's shadow war, and ambiguity favors the aggressor. By the time attribution debates conclude, the urgency has passed. Until allies establish a codified escalation ladder tying every incursion to predetermined consequences, Russia will keep probing the threshold.

Read the full report in the comment below.

05/07/2026

Overnight on May 5, Flamingo missiles reportedly struck JSC VNIIR-Progress in Cheboksary, a Russian state facility producing components for high-precision weapons used to attack Ukraine. It was one of several successful strikes demonstrating that the trajectory is clear: Ukraine is moving toward indigenous missiles that combine range, payload, and speed in ways its drones cannot. In 2023, Ukraine's long-range strike arsenal was almost entirely dependent on Western partners.

Fabian Hoffmann describes it as the next step in Ukraine's evolution. The Flamingo cruise missile, unveiled by Fire Point in August, reportedly carries a 1,150kg payload up to 3,000km, combining range, payload, and speed in ways Ukraine's drones cannot

The cost will rise sharply. A Flamingo is likely 10 to 20 times more expensive than mass-produced drones. Foreign financing of Ukraine's indigenous missile capabilities is still the variable that matters most.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

05/07/2026

Across Asia, governments are taking some of the most assertive and varied approaches to regulating children’s social media use. From China’s strict usage controls to Indonesia’s platform restrictions, policies often build on existing systems of state oversight. Countries like India are still debating potential bans, illustrating the region’s wide spectrum of approaches.

As mapped by Jenna Presta, some governments are pursuing sweeping restrictions, while others focus on age verification or platform-specific rules. In many cases, child safety policies intersect with broader censorship frameworks. Explore the full report to compare how these models differ.

05/07/2026

How can NATO allies ensure that Europe's historic defense spending surge actually strengthens deterrence — and doesn't just grow bureaucracy? Join CEPA on May 8 from 11:30 AM–12:25 PM ET in Room 154AB for a panel discussion on accelerating the integration of emerging technologies into Allied defense and overcoming the procurement and industrial hurdles standing in the way. Part of the full-day Innovation Under Fire: Lessons Learned from Ukraine event, this is a session for anyone serious about the future of Allied security. Register at

CEPA’s sessions at the AI+ Expo will explore US-EU cooperation on AI adoption and how to learn from Ukraine's adaptive and combat-proven defense innovation ecosystem. As the United States celebrates 250 years of innovation, the AI+ Expo will bring together leaders from the tech industry, governmen...

05/06/2026

Russia's war in Ukraine and the war in Iran have exposed a hard truth about NATO's defense industrial base: the modern battlefield has moved toward autonomy, electronic warfare, and real-time data fusion, while much of the alliance remains tied to slow procurement and legacy platforms.

A new report by CEPA's International Leadership Council makes the case that Europe's surge in defense spending is a once-in-a-generation opportunity, but only if the money goes toward real deterrence rather than entrenching outdated force structures. That means scaling autonomous systems, modernizing manufacturing, and unlocking private capital.

Europe must stop treating Ukraine as a perpetual aid recipient. It is the most combat-proven defense innovation ecosystem in Europe and should be integrated into NATO's force planning as a net contributor.

Read the full report in the comment below.

05/06/2026

Bulgaria's April election delivered an outright majority to former President Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria party, ending years of fractured politics and the rule of Boyko Borissov. The immediate reaction in Brussels was to ask whether Radev would become another Orbán.

Dessie Zagorcheva argues that this is the wrong question. Radev now controls 131 of 240 seats, which means he can no longer hide behind coalition constraints. His central campaign promise was to dismantle Bulgaria's oligarchic networks, and Bulgaria is jointly the most corrupt country in the EU.

If he delivers, the structural conditions that enable Russian influence collapse with them. If he fails, his own supporters will end his career. Conditioning EU funding on rule-of-law benchmarks and investing in independent media will say more about Radev than any of his speeches.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

05/06/2026

Lithuania recently broke up Russian sabotage rings and a murder plot centered on Ruslan Gabbasov.

Sabotage is a critical part of Russia's shadow war, where cable cuts, arson, rail disruptions, and warehouse fires are not isolated criminal acts. They are parts of a single coordinated campaign that European institutions are still treating as separate problems.

Until allies respond with the same coherence as Russia attacks with, more incidents like this one are inevitable.

Read the full report in the comment below.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/01/world/europe/russia-sabotage-lithuania.html

05/06/2026

Russians stayed silent through invasions, casualty counts, and tax hikes. Then the Kremlin throttled the internet, and suddenly even beauty influencers and reality TV stars are speaking out.

Mikhail Komin tells the New York Times that "the internet restrictions have turned a large number of people against the ruling class, if not against Vladimir Putin personally. That's why we're seeing approval ratings drop and people who never spoke out on political issues suddenly getting political."

Read the full article in the comment below.

05/06/2026

Europe is finally spending on defense, but its industrial base cannot manufacture systems at the volume and speed that the moment demands.

Thomas Godward argues that the technology already exists, much of it battle-tested in Ukraine. Magura naval drones have destroyed or damaged about 15 Russian warships. Kvertus has built an AI-coordinated electronic warfare network spanning 1,200km of the frontline. Ukraine plans to build 7 million drones this year, more than all NATO countries combined.

The capital exists, too. Three pools, European institutional, Gulf sovereign, and US private equity, are positioned to flow into European defense. What stands in the way is regulatory friction that policymakers can remove now: clarifying defense as a positive contribution under the EU's sustainable finance rules, building a trusted partner framework for Gulf capital, and streamlining the FDI screening regime.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

05/05/2026

Today, Portugal is a digital leader when it comes to producing startups and is home to eight unicorns. The country is a hub for digital nomads, leads on e-health, and recently launched the EU’s first national digital wallet for businesses.

This morning, CEPA and the Embassy of Portugal partnered to host a conversation on what Portugal got right on tech talent, startups, and AI adoption with Ambassador Duarte Lopes, Minister Leitão Amaro, and Daniela Braga of Defined.ai.

Though challenges remain for digital upskilling Portuguese citizens and strengthening the country’s scale-up strategy, Portugal has the infrastructure and ambition to become a digital frontrunner.

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