11/11/2025
Minutes — SAFTU / Rosa Luxemburg Political School webinar: Budget, the MTBPS & the Threat of Austerity
Context: Webinar convened by SAFTU with Rosa Luxemburg support to prepare affiliates for the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) to be delivered to Parliament on 12 November 2025. The session aimed to explain the economic framework (inflation targeting, Operation Vulindlela / GAIN, blended finance and PPPs), to assess likely impacts on workers and public services, and to plan mobilisation and communications ahead of the MTBPS.
Opening
• Newton Masuku welcomed participants, noted purpose of webinar (preparation ahead of MTBPS and mobilisation for demonstrations outside Parliament on 12 Nov).
• Zwelinzima Vavi gave a short welcome framing the webinar as essential worker education — emphasised the real, immediate impact of fiscal and monetary policy on jobs, services and wages, and urged that material be simplified for mass circulation.
Presentation — Dominic Brown (AIDC)
Key points
1. Deindustrialisation & investment shortfall
o Manufacturing’s share of GDP and employment has fallen substantially since 1994; gross fixed capital formation (investment) remains low (~14% of GDP) compared with other emerging economies.
o Low investment levels, trade liberalisation and high-cost imports have contributed to job losses.
2. Monetary policy, interest rates & inflation targeting
o Interest rates in South Africa have been high; the inflation-targeting framework is a material constraint on growth.
o A narrower (lower) inflation target (3% focus) implies tighter monetary policy — higher rates and a stifling effect on investment and jobs.
o Many price drivers are supply-side (exchange rate, fuel, food, municipal service charges) which interest-rate hikes do not adequately address.
3. Operation Vulindlela / GAIN / “blended finance” approach
o Government proposals aim to raise fixed investment (target referenced ~25% by 2030) primarily through private-sector mobilisation, blended finance and de-risking of private projects.
o Blended finance + PPPs shift risk to the state while guaranteeing private profits; this is accompanied by deregulatory measures (unbundling SOEs, liberalising energy and ports, opening rail/ports to private operators).
4. Energy market liberalisation
o The move towards a liberalised wholesale energy market (daily/hourly pricing, wheeling, independent generators and transmission companies) will produce fluctuating tariffs and likely higher costs for households.
o “Wheeling” and preferential negotiated deals (subsidies to industry) will shift costs onto ordinary consumers.
5. Fiscal constraints and contingent liabilities
o Increased reliance on PPPs and guarantees raises contingent liabilities and can crowd out fiscal space for public services.
o Smart meters and other conditionalities on finance have distributional impacts—municipalities incentivised to raise service revenues rather than protect free/basic services.
6. Alternatives / points for unions
o State-led, locally directed industrial strategy with targeted public investment, capital/exchange controls and technology transfers could create local demand and employment.
o Re-introducing policy tools (e.g., controls on capital outflow, reorientation of public investment) would reduce dependency on precarious private finance.
Technical materials
• Dominic agreed to share slides for circulation; slides requested for immediate distribution and simplification for grassroots use.
Discussion — key interventions & responses
• Capacity-building for affiliates: Meshack, Makungu and others asked how AIDC and SAFTU can support smaller unions and shop stewards to understand and campaign around these issues. Dominic confirmed AIDC’s willingness to engage further on capacity-building; follow-up support was requested.
• Inflation and the poor/unemployed: Liso queried the effects of tolerating higher inflation if wages could be indexed; Dominic replied that tolerating inflation only becomes acceptable if it is paired with a credible program of mass employment, wage protection mechanisms (indexation where possible), expanded public services and price controls for essentials — otherwise the poor suffer disproportionately.
• Marxist critique / structural constraints: Newton raised the argument that the problems are structural (global over-accumulation, international division of labour). Dominic acknowledged international constraints but argued the South African state has policy choices (investment direction, capital controls, domestic beneficiation) that matter for how those constraints are navigated.
• Energy & independent transmission: Liso and others asked about consequences of independent transmission and wheeling; Dominic explained how multiple private players and “cost-plus” arrangements add markups at each step and tend to increase household tariffs while private industry can receive negotiated subsidies.
• Mobilisation & messaging: Zwelinzima Vavi stressed the need to translate the technical content into bite-sized materials (posters, one-minute videos, social media clips) so workers can grasp the link between the budget and their daily struggles.
Additional contextual concern raised
Participants noted a deepening social crisis that intersects with austerity: attacks on service providers and emergency personnel, vandalism and burning of public infrastructure (schools, libraries, universities), escalating gender-based violence, and other forms of social breakdown linked to economic distress. Meeting contributors argued this heightens the urgency of protecting and expanding public services and preventing further state retrenchment of essential social provisioning.
Decisions, actions and responsibilities (agreed at the webinar)
1. AIDC → SAFTU: Provide presenter slides and source material to SAFTU for republication and distribution to affiliates (slides to be supplied by Dominic Brown / AIDC).
2. SAFTU Media Team: Convert slides + key points into simplified, shareable formats — short explainer videos (≈1 minute), posters, and social media clips in accessible language for workers.
3. Campaign & Organising Committees (SAFTU): Lead mobilisation for demonstrations outside Parliament on 12 November 2025; use webinar material in leaflets and inter-union mobilisation.
4. Capacity-building: SAFTU to coordinate with AIDC to design rapid briefs/training sessions for shop stewards and smaller unions (focus: how the budget/MTBPS affects wages, jobs and services).
5. Research / Follow-up: Collate evidence on vacant public posts, municipal free-basic services decline, smart-meter contracts and PPP approvals to inform campaign messaging and parliamentary submissions.
6. Communications: Draft an internal brief summarising the webinar’s main messages and suggested talking points for affiliates’ use in workplace meetings and social media.
(Owners: SAFTU Secretariat / Campaign Committee / Media Team / AIDC as indicated. Ex*****on to commence immediately by those nominated.)
Key messages for affiliates (to be published / circulated)
• The MTBPS and the shift to a tighter inflation target risk more austerity: higher interest rates, less investment in public services and more unemployment.
• Operation Vulindlela / blended finance + PPPs threaten to privatise risk while guaranteeing private profit — this will raise costs for ordinary households (energy, water, transport).
• Unions must demand: protection and filling of public-sector vacancies (teachers, nurses, police, CHWs), halt to cost-reflective tariff rollouts that hurt households, and transparency on PPPs / IPP contracts.
• Immediate priority: mobilise members for visible presence at Parliament on 12 Nov and use the simplified materials produced from the webinar to educate shop stewards and members.
Closing
• Newton Masuku thanked the presenter, contributors and participants. Zwelinzima Vavi closed by reiterating the urgency of education and mobilisation, and asked that the slides and simplified materials be circulated broadly (Facebook and other platforms) for wider worker education.